26th August – USDCHF Short GBPAUD Long

26th August – USDCHF Short GBPAUD Long Markets head into the final week of August with a clear “cut-watch” bias after Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks nudged major houses toward a September Fed easing call. With durable goods due today, Q2 GDP (2nd) later in the week, and July PCE on Friday, the dollar’s rallies look fragile unless the data re-accelerate. Nvidia’s results on Wednesday add a second macro-beta for equity risk. Rank Market (px) Bias & Triggers (enter) Structural Stop (invalidation) Targets (scale out) Why this is A+ today (T • F • S/Flows) 1 USD/CHF ~0.81 Short rallies 0.8125–0.8175 or 4h close <0.8075 0.8170/0.8240 0.8000 → 0.7930 F: Into Fri PCE and GDP (Thu) 2nd est. the market still leans to a Sep Fed cut, keeping USD rallies fragile; SNB already at 0% and tolerant of a firm CHF. T: Lower-highs keep 0.81 a sell zone. S: Retail is ~90% long USD/CHF (contrarian bearish). Stops: sell-stops <0.8075 → 0.8040, heavy near 0.8000. (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Forex Clients Sentiment) 2 GBP/AUD ~2.08 Long dips 2.074–2.085 or H1 close >2.090 2.071 (beneath last HL) 2.105 → 2.120 (stretch 2.140) F: RBA cut to 3.60% with scope for more; UK CPI 3.8% y/y keeps BoE relatively cautious on cuts → policy divergence favors GBP. T: Up-trend from July; 2.07–2.08 repeatedly defended. S: Retail majority short GBPAUD (contrarian bullish). Stops: buy-stops >2.090–2.095, sell-stops <2.071. (Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, IG) 3 NZD/USD ~0.58 Short pops 0.5900–0.5920 or momentum <0.5820 0.596 0.5750 → 0.5700 F: RBNZ cut 25bp and flagged room for more easing → sustained policy divergence. T: Breakdown through 0.59 keeps bears in control. S: Retail crowd ~69% long NZD/USD (contrarian bearish). Stops: sell-stops <0.5820 → 0.5800; buy-stops >0.5960. (Reuters, Forex Clients Sentiment) 4 USD/JPY ~147.74 Short bounces 147.90–148.20 or break <146.90 148.60/149.00 146.10 → 145.60 F: Powell’s tone + data slate (Durables/Confidence today; GDP Thu; PCE Fri) keep UST yields capped while BoJ hawkish drift lingers after Q2 GDP beat. T: Series of lower-highs below 148; clean trigger under 146.90. Stops: buy-stops >148.20/149.00; sell-stops <146.90. (Reuters) 5 US Tech 100 (Nasdaq-100) ~23,405 Long on dip 23,200–23,350 if holding into NVDA; add on reclaim/close >23,800 after earnings 22,950 24,150 → 24,600 F: NVDA earnings Wed (spotlight of week) + Fri PCE; Powell’s dovish tilt keeps a cut in play. T: Trend intact; shallow pullbacks while above ~23.2k. S/Dealer: retail positioning near balanced/slightly short in Nasdaq proxies — not euphoric. Stops: buy-stops >24,000; sell-stops <23,200. (Financial Times, TipRanks, Reuters) 6 Gold ~3374 Long on pullbacks 3360–3368 or 4h close >3388 3348 3405 → 3425 F: Cut-leaning Fed + Friday PCE focus; ETF flows turned positive by mid-Aug; oil/growth mix supportive. T: Bullish structure above 3350. S: Not crowded; vol still contained (VIX ~15). Stops: resting below 3348 swing low. (Bureau of Economic Analysis, World Gold Council) Trade Setups Analysis – 26th August – USDCHF Short GBPAUD Long – PCE & Nvidia Loom USD/CHF – Short on strength. Policy divergence remains crisp: the SNB set rates to 0% in June and retains a tolerance for a firm franc, while U.S. markets lean to a September cut. Technically, 0.8125–0.8175 continues to cap; we like selling rallies or momentum below 0.8075, targeting 0.8000 then 0.7930. A daily close above 0.8170 invalidates. GBP/AUD – Long on dips. The RBA’s 25 bp cut to 3.60% (12 Aug) and guidance that further easing is plausible contrasts with sticky U.K. inflation dynamics, leaving relative policy still GBP-supportive. Buy 2.074–2.085 or on an hourly close above 2.090; targets 2.105/2.120 (stretch 2.140). Invalidate below 2.071. NZD/USD – Short into pops. The RBNZ’s majority vote to cut the OCR to 3.00% and dovish tone keep the kiwi on the back foot absent a USD shock. Fade bounces into 0.5900–0.5920 or add through 0.5820; look for 0.5750/0.5700. Risk above 0.5960. USD/JPY – Sell rallies. With Fed easing odds elevated and this week’s U.S. data likely to dictate front-end yields, the topside looks heavy unless Treasury yields lurch higher. Fade 147.90–148.20 or sell a clean break under 146.90; targets 146.10/145.60; risk above 148.60–149.00. (A soft PCE would reinforce.) Nasdaq-100 – Buy the dip, respect NVDA. AI leadership remains the market’s fulcrum; we prefer adding post-earnings on a reclaim/close above ~23,800, or buying 23,200–23,350 if breadth holds. Targets 24,150/24,600; risk ~22,950. NVIDIA reports Wednesday after the close—position sizing should reflect single-name gap risk. Gold – Accumulate on pullbacks. A benign PCE on Friday would validate the “real-yield drift lower” narrative and keep dips supported. Add 3,360–3,368 or on a 4-hour close >3,388; targets 3,405/3,425; risk below ~3,348. BEA lists Aug. 29 for the next Personal Income & Outlays/PCE release. Dealer colour and retail positioning continue to skew long USD/CHF and short GBP/AUD, which complements these directions. Into the data, we’d scale rather than chase, use hard stops at the specified invalidation levels, and trim risk into the PCE print—then reassess the dollar path once the inflation anchor is known.   For similar Forex Markets news please visit our forex page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. 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