26th May Trade Ideas – USDCHF Analysis
| Rank | Pair / Direction | Entry Level | Stop Loss | Targets | Detailed Rationale |
| 1 | USD/CHF – SHORT | 0.8195 – sell a 1-h close | 0.8300 (tight 0.8350) | TP1 – 0.8184 TP2 – 0.8100 | US fiscal angst + lingering war headlines keep haven-CHF in demand; structure still a fresh bear-flag break with thin support under 0.8200. Momentum (RSI < 50) intact. |
| 2 | USD/JPY – SHORT | 142.00 – sell a 4-h close | 146.00 (fade) / 144.80 (break) | TP1 – 141.65 TP2 – 141.00 | Divergent policy path (BoJ tightening vs. Fed cuts), fiscal worries and tech break of April up-trend keep bias lower. Fresh trade-deal hopes only slow, not reverse, down-move; 142.00 is pivot. |
| 3 | EUR/USD – LONG | 1.1425 – Dip-buy 1.3520-1.3540 (prior breakout zone | 1.1285 (below prior swing) | TP1 – 1.1450 TP2 – 1.1500 | Tariff delay to 9 Jul + DXY slide revive “Sell America”. Germany GDP beat, ECB only mildly dovish. Clear close through 1.1375 confirmed higher-high; momentum positive but not overbought. |
| 4 | GBP/USD – LONG | ▸ **Break** – buy a daily close **› 1.3600**.<br>▸ **Dip-buy** 1.3520-1.3540 (prior breakout zone). | 1.3425 (below 9-EMA) | TP1 – 1.3730 TP2 – 1.3900 | Retail-sales beat, sticky CPI, and tariff reprieve power sterling; ascending channel intact, RSI still below 70. Clean 1.3600 clearance opens un-contested air to 1.3730+. |
Summary
The macro narrative (USD under fiscal and trade-policy pressure) and technical picture (clear breakouts / breakdowns with room to run) line up most cleanly in USD/CHF, USD/JPY, and EUR/USD. All three pairs offer attractive risk-reward profiles:
USD/CHF is perched just above thin air—any slip through 0.8195 could accelerate toward the year-to-date low at 0.8038.
USD/JPY remains a “sell-the-rally” market while it trades beneath 144, with a decisive move sub-142 likely to test 141-handle supports.
EUR/USD has completed its breakout; holding above 1.1375 keeps 1.1500 and the YTD high (1.1573) squarely in view.
Event risk is front-loaded this week (FOMC minutes, U.S. GDP, core-PCE), so position sizing and disciplined stop-management are crucial. But if the prevailing “Sell America” theme holds, these three trades have the greatest potential to capitalise on continuing USD weakness.
Check similar High-Conviction Trade Ideas on our forex page.
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