EURJPY Trade Setup – 10.7.25 EUR/JPY starts the week hovering near cycle highs above 175, with the cross underpinned by persistent yen softness and steady, if unspectacular, euro fundamentals. Policy divergence remains the core driver: markets continue to price only gradual BoJ normalization alongside a more neutral ECB stance, while risk appetite in Asia has kept the yen on the back foot. The result is a supportive macro backdrop for EUR/JPY so long as financial conditions remain benign and Japanese authorities limit themselves to verbal vigilance rather than action. Technically, the pair has transitioned from consolidation to expansion. The prior cap around 175.5 – 175.8 has rotated into first support, and momentum studies point to constructive trend conditions as long as higher lows are defended. Overhead, the 176.3 / 176.8 zone marks the next area where supply may re-emerge, with a clear break opening a path toward the upper-178s. From a trade flow perspective, positioning is favorable for long continuation: euro longs are elevated but not extreme, while yen shorts remain sizeable, creating fuel for stop-driven follow-through above well-watched figures 176.00 / 176.50. Near term, watch Eurozone data and ECB speak for incremental growth signals, and keep an eye on any MoF jawboning around sharp JPY moves, absent a policy surprise, dips in EUR/JPY should continue to find willing buyers. EURJPY Trade Setup: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) EUR/JPY 175.8900 LONG on dips between 175.60 – 175.20; momentum add on prints >176.35 4H close below 174.20 176.80 / 178.00 Fundamentals: JPY leg is the driver (see above). Eurozone data mixed but retail sales +0.1% MoM; France political noise pressured EUR vs USD/GBP but EUR/JPY still rides JPY weakness. Technicals: Fresh record/52-wk highs 176.3; shallow pullbacks bought. Positioning: EUR remains net long (114k) but not at extremes; JPY shorts elevated, supportive for trend continuation. Stops: Above 176.30 – 176.50; liquidity pockets under 175.00. Wed 8 Oct 19:00 FOMC Minutes (USD leg via cross-flows). Thu–Fri: Any ECB speakers; lingering France headlines. Asia risk tone each session. Chart by TradingView – EURJPY Trade Setup – 10.7.25 Conclusion While EUR/JPY holds above the 175.2 – 175.6 support band, the risk-reward remains skewed higher. Our plan is unchanged, buy orderly pullbacks into 175.6 – 175.2 and add on sustained acceptance above 176.35, targeting 176.80 first and then 178.00. Risk is tightly defined: a 4-hour close below 174.20, or a sharp rejection back under 175.20 after a failed break above 176.35, invalidates and argues for de-risking. Our trade management will be dynamic: trail stops beneath successive higher lows, take partials into 176.80, and ratchet to breakeven once 176.00 is captured on a closing basis. We’ll be staying alert to ECB headlines and Eurozone prints, and keep MoF jawboning on the radar; absent a clear policy surprise, dips should continue to find sponsorship and momentum favors continuation toward the upper-178s. For similar Forex Trade Signals please visit our forex trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...
Standard Package Membership Required
You must be a Standard Package member to access this content.
