AUDJPY Trade Setup Analysis – 13.10.25 Today we are looking AUD/JPY with the pair siting just under the psychologically important 100.00 handle after a corrective pop, with the macro, technical, and positioning picture aligned for downside. Fundamentally, tariff and China-growth uncertainty remain AUD-negative, while any risk-off wobble tends to favor JPY. Near-term China CPI / PPI and Australia labor data keep asymmetric headline risk to the downside for AUD, and persistent BOJ / MOF sensitivity to rapid yen weakness raises the probability of JPY-supportive jawboning on spikes. Technically, the pair has repeatedly failed around 100.00, carving lower highs and leaving a clean pocket below 98.60. Sentiment, from a flows perspective, yen shorts remain crowded and dealer stops are likely stacked above 100.00 and beneath 98.50, increasing the payoff from fading strength and adding on a range break. AUDJPY Trade Setup: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) AUD/JPY (99.05) Short between 99.10 – 99.60 (rally into supply). Add on breakdown <98.60. 100.30 hard stop (daily close >100.50 invalidates). 97.40, 96.20. Fundamentals: US–China tariff flare-up is AUD-negative; China CPI/PPI risk mid-week; Japan politics keep JPY event-rich (BOJ hike chatter if JPY slides too far). Technicals: Rejection repeatedly near 100.00; lower highs since spike; clean air below 98.60. Sentiment.: Risk-off tone; increasing interest in JPY longs per latest flow commentary; stops likely above 100.00 figure. Wed 15 Oct 01:30 – China CPI/PPI. Wed 15 Oct (am) – Japan PM confirmation vote headlines. Thu 16 Oct 01:30 – Australia Labour Force (11:30 AEDT). Chart by TradingView – AUDJPY Trade Setup Analysis – 13.10.25 Conclusion We will be looking to short between 99.10–99.60 (into round-number supply) and potentially adding on any momentum through 98.60. We’ll place a hard stop at 100.30 (with a daily-close invalidation >100.50), targeting 97.40 first and 96.20 as a stretch. We think this qualifies as an A+ (3/3) setup because: (1): Fundamentals skew AUD-negative and JPY-supportive on tariff/risk dynamics and event risk; (2): Technicals show repeated rejection at 100.00 with a well-defined breakdown level; and (3): Sentiment/positioning likely features clustered stops above 100.00 and below 98.60, offering favorable Risk : Reward and squeeze potential in our direction. If the pair settles above 100.50, we’ll stand aside and reassess; otherwise, manage partials into 97s and trail against lower highs to stay in any trending follow-through. For similar Forex Trade Signals please visit our forex trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...
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