Author: Dan Patrick
Dan Patrick
Dan Patrick is the founder and lead analyst at TerraBullMarkets, publishing high-conviction, “A+ only” FX trade setups and concise London-session macro briefings. Views are his own; this is not investment advice.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index lands on Thursday, 16 October 2025 at 13:30 UK / 08:30 ET, offering one of the first regionals to shape expectations for October’s factory pulse. After September’s outsized +23.2 headline, the strongest since earlier in the year, consensus estimates are looking for a modest 10 (with a low Street Forecast call near 4). Our read is that momentum cools but remains positive: Our Call: +7. The balance of signals suggests mean reversion from September’s spike amid softer national demand cues, while still-resilient local internals argue against a sudden contraction. With U.S. PPI dropping at the same…
The October NY Empire State Manufacturing Index prints on Wednesday, 15 Oct 2025 at 13:30 UK time. The market’s first regional read on current-month factory activity. With September’s headline at −8.7, the street is looking for a rebound (Consensus −1.8; Street Forecast −5). Our read leans more cautious: we call −5.5 (range −10 to 0), reflecting still-soft demand and only tentative signs of stabilization. This note frames Our Call vs. Consensus, what to watch inside the report (new orders, shipments, prices, employment, and 6-month expectations), and the likely cross-asset reaction path in USTs, the USD, and cyclicals. Snapshot & Schedule…
All eyes turn to FED Powell Speech on Tuesday, 14 October 2025 at 17:20 UK (12:20 ET). With markets finely balanced between sticky-inflation risk and a cooling growth pulse, Powell’s tone and guidance on the path of policy will matter at least as much as the words themselves. In this note we look to frame what to listen for, his assessment of recent inflation prints and labour-market rebalancing, any colour on financial-conditions tightening, balance-sheet runoff. Also, the Committee’s reaction function into the next FOMC. We also map the potential market paths for USD rates and curves, the dollar, and equities under…
ZEW Economic Sentiment Preview – 14.10.25 The euro area’s forward-looking pulse gets a fresh read on Tuesday, 14 October 2025 at 10:00 UK, when the ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys land for Germany and the wider bloc. Our base case looks for a modest upside in expectations, Germany 41 (vs 39.5 consensus; 36 street) and Euro Area 30 (vs 30.2 consensus; 25.1 street), tempered by another slide in Germany’s Current Situation. The mix aligns with what markets have been pricing over the past month: firmer risk appetite and stabilizing PMIs on one side; weak German hard data and still-soft industry on…
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview – 10.10.25 The University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment for October 2025 lands on Friday at 15:00 UK, a timely pulse check on the U.S. household outlook just as markets weigh softer activity data against easing fuel costs and a still-uncertain labor backdrop. September’s final print of 55.1 set the bar; consensus looks for a modest step down toward the mid-54s. In this note, we frame what matters most for traders and macro watchers: the split between Current Conditions and Expectations, the trajectory of one-year and five-to-ten-year inflation expectations, and how rate-sensitive buying conditions might be…
FOMC Minutes Preview – 10.08.2025 At 19:00 UK (14:00 ET) today, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its September 16 – 17 meeting, the one that delivered the first 25 bp cut of 2025, taking the target range to 4.00% – 4.25% and featuring Stephen Miran’s dissent in favor of a 50 bp move. With a U.S. government shutdown stalling key data (payrolls, CPI) and forcing traders to lean on private proxies, these minutes carry extra weight for gauging the October 28 – 29 and December 9 – 10 meetings. We expect the market to comb the text for…
Euro Area Retail Sales Aug – Preview – 10.6.25 Euro Area Retail Sales (Aug) prints on Monday, 06 October 2025 at 10:00 UK time, offering a high-frequency read on household demand heading into Q4. Against a backdrop of softer consumer confidence and uneven country data, our base case is –0.1% m/m (prior –0.5%), modestly below consensus (+0.1%) and street forecasts of (+0.2%). Germany and Italy point to weaker non-food volumes, while Spain offers a tourism-boosted offset and France looks broadly flat on volume-type gauges. Lower August energy prices help fuel volumes at the margin, but not enough to overcome core…
ISM Services PMI – What to Expect – 03.10.25 The September ISM Services PMI report (Fri, 03 Oct 2025; 15:00 UK / 10:00 ET) lands into a mixed macro backdrop: activity remains expansionary but momentum has cooled, hiring signals have softened, and price pressures in services are still sticky. Against that context, our base case is for the headline to dip modestly to 51.4 (vs 51.7 consensus; 51.0 street). We expect Business Activity/New Orders to ease but stay in expansion, Employment to remain in mild contraction (47 – 48), and Prices Paid to hold elevated (67 – 69). This reflects…
Non-Farm Payrolls – What to Expect – 03.10.25 On Friday, 3 October 2025 (13:30 UK), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Employment Situation, headline Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, a market-moving read on labor-market health that shapes views on growth momentum, inflation pressures, and the path of Federal Reserve policy. Our central call is for September nonfarm payrolls around +10k (range: –25k to +25k), well below the 50k consensus, with private payrolls flat-to-slightly negative, the unemployment rate near 4.3%, and average hourly earnings up 0.2 – 0.3% m/m (3.6 – 3.7% y/y). The…
US Initial Jobless Claims – Preview – 01.10.25 On Thursday, 2 October 2025 (13:30 UK), the U.S. Department of Labor will release Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended 27 September, a high-frequency barometer of layoff activity that shapes views on labor-market momentum, inflation pressures, and near-term interest-rate expectations. This note assesses the upcoming US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended 27 September 2025, a high-frequency gauge of layoff activity that shapes near-term rate expectations and USD direction. We have benchmarked the release against prior 218k and consensus / street 223k, and frame the call using the most recent…