US PPI Expectations Preview – 10/9/2025 US PPI Expectations Preview: Producer Price Index (Aug) — Brief Preview The August PPI (Wed 10 Sep, 13:30 UK / 08:30 ET) is a key pipeline read into core PCE via core‐goods and business services costs. After July’s outsized +0.9% jump, driven largely by services margins – consensus looks for cooler prints (headline +0.3% m/m, core +0.3% to 0.4%, core y/y 3.5 to3.6%). The market will focus on three things: (1) whether trade services and fee categories mean-revert, (2) the core-core gauge (ex food, energy, and trade) as the cleanest signal for policy, and…
Author: TerraBullMarkets
USDCHF Trade Idea – 9/9/2025 We’re approaching USD/CHF with a sell-the-rally framework into 0.7960–0.8000, with a tactical add on any failed break of 0.8035–0.8060. The macro skew is USD-negative into this week’s inflation prints, while the franc retains a defensive bid ahead of the late-September SNB meeting. Technically, the pair has accepted below 0.80 with repeated rejections in 0.80–0.81, keeping risk/reward attractive with a tight invalidation at 0.8065 (or daily close >0.8050). Positioning adds edge: CHF specs remain net-short, leaving room for short-covering if USD softens on data. Key timing cues are US PPI (Wed 13:30 UK) and US CPI…...
Standard Package Membership Required
You must be a Standard Package member to access this content.
Already a member? Log in here
GBPJPY Trade Idea – 8/9/2025 Here’s the framework for this week’s GBP/JPY trade. We’re treating the latest pop as headline-driven and prefer fading strength into the 200.60–201.40 supply zone, with risk defined above 202.00/202.30. The setup scores A+ as it aligns fundamentals (event-heavy week with US PPI/CPI and UK GDP that can restore JPY’s haven bid), technicals (repeated supply between 200–202), and sentiment/positioning (GBP shorts and JPY longs can accelerate downside on risk-off). Execution is tactical: wait for a clear rejection or momentum roll in the zone, then target 197.20 and 194.80, trailing under emerging lower highs. If we close…...
Standard Package Membership Required
You must be a Standard Package member to access this content.
Already a member? Log in here
BLS Nonfarm Payrolls – Preliminary Benchmark Revision On Tuesday, 9 September 2025 at 15:00 UK / 10:00 ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its BLS Nonfarm Payrolls preliminary annual benchmark revision, an annual re-anchor of the CES survey to unemployment-insurance tax records (QCEW) at the March 2025 benchmark. This is a level adjustment at a single date and not a republication of the full monthly path; the full history will be revised with the January 2026 Employment Situation released in February 2026. Street previews lean toward a material downward revision (−0.3% to −0.6%), and our base case is…
Gold Trade Setup – 4/9/2025 Gold (XAUUSD) enters today’s session with a constructive backdrop: ISM manufacturing’s contraction underscores a soft-growth tone that helps keep real-yield headwinds contained. In that environment, dips are more likely to be absorbed than extended, provided U.S. data don’t spark a sharp rise in yields or the dollar. Technically, the breakout remains intact while price holds above the 3510 area, giving a clear, high-quality level to lean against. The trade plan is straightforward: accumulate on pullbacks to 3510–3525, with a momentum add above 3555/3565 once buyers confirm control. Risk is well-defined with tactical invalidation at 3488…...
Standard Package Membership Required
You must be a Standard Package member to access this content.
Already a member? Log in here
EURUSD Trade Setup – 4/9/2025 EUR/USD presents a high-conviction long for the coming sessions. On the macro side, Euro-area inflation has stabilized enough to keep the ECB patient, while U.S. growth data have softened at the margin, leaving the market biased toward additional Fed easing. That policy divergence narrative, combined with contained real yields, reduces downside USD carry and supports EUR on dips. Technically, the pair continues to carve higher lows from mid-August, with well-defined inflection levels at 1.1725/1.1760 that can unlock momentum if reclaimed. Positioning and options flow (elevated but not extreme EUR longs; persistent USD-put demand) argue…...
Standard Package Membership Required
You must be a Standard Package member to access this content.
Already a member? Log in here
EURCHF Trade Setup – 3/9/2025 EURCHF is setting up as a high-conviction long with fundamentals, technicals, and positioning pulling in the same direction. On the macro side, the SNB’s easy stance and willingness to lean against CHF strength leave the franc with a softer bias, while the euro’s data pulse has stabilized, reducing downside tails for EUR. Technically, price continues to hold a 0.932–0.935 support basin, offering a well-defined place to lean against, with clear upside triggers at 0.9385, 0.9420, and 0.9480. Sentiment and dealer positioning are benign—CHF’s haven bid remains muted outside of risk shocks—so dips are more likely…...
Standard Package Membership Required
You must be a Standard Package member to access this content.
Already a member? Log in here
ISM Services PMI Expectations – 4/9/2025US ISM Services PMI (Aug) — Preview & Market FramingThursday’s ISM Services PMI release (04 Sep, 15:00 UK / 10:00 ET) lands into a market already parsing mixed signals – manufacturing still sub-50, labor demand has been gradually cooling, and services-led inflation has been proving sticky. Consensus looks for a modest return to expansion near 51.0 (prior 50.1); our base case sits just above the 50 line at 50.7–51.0.What will matter most isn’t the headline alone but the composition:Business Activity and New Orders gauge near-term growth momentum; sustained prints above 52 would further support a…
EURUSD A+ Trade Setup — 2 Sep 2025 Thesis: Stay constructive EUR/USD and EUR/USD A+ Trade Setup buy weakness. The pair is carving a sequence of higher lows since mid-August while the macro backdrop tilts USD-soft as markets lean toward a September Fed cut and real yields compress (gold’s strength is the tell). Options flow remains USD-put supportive. This is a “buy pullbacks, not breakouts” day—scale in on dips, add only after clean confirmations. EUR/USD A+ Trade Setup Pair (Ref Px) Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals • technicals • positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) EUR/USD…...
Standard Package Membership Required
You must be a Standard Package member to access this content.
Already a member? Log in here
ISM Manufacturing PMI Expectations – 2/9/2025 Our ISM Manufacturing PMI’s Analysis The August ISM Manufacturing PMI lands into a messy—but improving—backdrop. The Street sits around 48.6 (vs. 48.0 in July), while our call is a touch firmer at 49.0 (48.5–49.5): still contractionary, but edging closer to the 50 break-even. What nudges us above consensus isn’t a single blowout print, but a mosaic: the S&P Global flash at 53.3 (which typically runs hotter than ISM) points to firmer orders and output; core capex orders +1.1% m/m and shipments +0.7% in July hint at steadier equipment demand; and the regional picture, though…