Author: TerraBullMarkets

3 Conviction Trade Ideas – Monday 12th May A 90‑day suspension of tit‑for‑tat tariffs between Washington and Beijing has jolted global FX markets into a classic “risk‑on” rotation. Carry and commodity currencies—led by the Australian and Canadian dollars—have surged, while traditional havens such as the yen continue to unwind last month’s defensive premium. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish “pause” keeps U.S. yields elevated, reinforcing broad yield‑differential pressures against the JPY. Against this backdrop we reassess our highest‑conviction trades across AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY, refining entry zones after Monday’s break‑outs. Below are 3 conviction trade ideas for the new week. 3 Conviction Trade Ideas: Rank…...

Commodities Week Ahead (Gold, Silver, Oil) Safe Havens Shine, Oil Struggles: The commodities complex is displaying a classic divergence: precious metals are rallying on safe-haven demand and falling real yields, while crude oil languishes at multi-year lows due to oversupply and growth fears. This week, developments in inflation and trade talks will be pivotal for both segments. Investors should monitor OPEC+ signals, U.S. inventory data, and inflation expectations to gauge the next moves in gold, silver, and oil. Gold: The yellow metal continues to glitter, trading near all-time highs. Spot gold is around $3,325/oz after rising ~0.7% at the end…

Equity Markets Week Ahead (US, UK, Europe) Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Global equities enter the week cautiously optimistic yet still constrained by the overhang of trade tensions. The MSCI All-World stock index barely budged on Friday as investors balanced tariff fears against hopes of a negotiated truce. President Trump’s aggressive tariff regime has undoubtedly left its mark on equities: the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 is down ~3.7% year-to-date, as markets price in potential economic damage from the trade war. In contrast, defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities – relatively insulated from economic swings…

Forex Market Outlook: Week of May 10–16, 2025 Forex Markets (Top 5 FX Pairs) Trade Talks and Data in Focus: Currency markets are bracing for a volatile week as U.S.-China trade negotiations unfold in Geneva amid low expectations for a breakthrough. Washington’s hefty tariffs (145% on Chinese imports, met with 125% retaliatory tariffs from Beijing) form a tense backdrop, driving safe-haven demand into currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Traders are also eyeing key economic data – notably the U.S. April CPI on May 13, expected at a modest +0.3% monthly (2.3% year-on-year) – alongside central bank speeches…

EUR/AUD Short – Euro Weakness vs. Aussie Below are our top 3 Forex Trade Ideas going into the weekend. We have avoided USD setups due to the upcoming SINOUS meeting which we expect to generate USD volatility. Rank by Confidence Pair (Current Price) Bias & Entry Stop-Loss Take-Profit Target(s) Est Risk Return 1 EUR/AUD (1.757) Sell ~1.7600 1.77 1.7400 (intraday), 2:1 (TP1) 1.7200 (swing) 4:1 (TP2) 2 CHF/JPY (174.77) Sell ~174.50 176 172.00 (intraday), 2:1 (TP1) 170.00 (swing) 3.6:1 (TP2) 3 CAD/JPY (104.36) Sell ~104.40 105.1 102.20 (initial), 3:1 (TP1) 100.00 (extended) 5:1 (extended TP) Our favorite trade of the…...

Revised USD/JPY Trade Setup – 08 May 2025 The USD/JPY pair remains in focus as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s policy tone and await a highly anticipated announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a potential trade deal with the United Kingdom. After testing multi-day highs near the psychologically significant 145.00 level, the pair is showing signs of hesitation as Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates, while also warning that protectionist tariffs could undermine the Fed’s dual mandate. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar has slipped back below the 100.00 handle on…...

USD/JPY Surges Toward 145.00: Powerful Rally Fueled by Fed Patience and Trade Optimism The Japanese Yen extended its retreat against the US Dollar on Thursday, with USD/JPY breaking through 144.80 as global markets reacted to a dovish Federal Reserve and renewed optimism around an imminent US trade agreement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks underscored a patient policy stance and downplayed the urgency for interest rate adjustments, pushing Treasury yields lower and pressuring the Greenback momentarily. However, the broader narrative of a hawkish pause — coupled with geopolitical trade optimism — has emboldened USD/JPY bulls, positioning the pair for a potential…...

3 Conviction Forex Trade Ideas to Watch As global markets brace for critical monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, major FX pairs are navigating heightened volatility driven by trade uncertainty, shifting rate expectations, and geopolitical stress. The US Dollar remains subdued ahead of tonight’s FOMC outcome, where no rate change is expected, but forward guidance will steer near-term sentiment. Meanwhile, the Euro and Pound are responding to political developments in Europe and expectations for further easing from the ECB and BoE. Amid these shifting dynamics, select currency pairs are offering high-conviction setups with favorable…...

High Conviction Trade Ideas- 6th May Currency markets are bracing for a pivotal 48‑hour window that features the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement this evening and the Bank of England’s rate decision tomorrow. A hawkish surprise from either is considered unlikely, yet positioning is thin as investors grapple with President Trump’s unpredictable tariff agenda, persistent Middle‑East flash points and renewed drone strikes on Moscow. The resulting bid for classic safe havens has re‑energised the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc even as the Bank of Japan signalled a slower‑than‑expected path to normalisation. Against this backdrop, the dollar index remains caged below 100.00, euro‑dollar is…...

3 Conviction Forex Trade Ideas May 5th Below is a summary of three high-conviction forex trade ideas for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and EUR/JPY. These setups blend recent macroeconomic drivers (inflation surprises, central bank policies, geopolitical risks) with technical analysis (trendlines, Fibonacci retracements, moving averages, support/resistance). Each trade includes suggested entry and exit levels (targets and stop-loss), the trade direction (long or short), and a confidence ranking based on the alignment of fundamental and technical factors. Forex Trade Ideas May 5th: Pair Trade Entry Level Target (Take Profit) Stop Loss Confidence Rank EUR/JPY Short (sell EUR, buy JPY) ~163.20 (on break below…...