Author: TerraBullMarkets

USD/JPY starts the week under renewed downside pressure, with price slipping back toward the mid-155s as the market refocuses on the rates narrative and the vulnerability of stretched carry. With U.S. 10-year yields holding near 4.18% and momentum in the pair fading on rallies, the risk/reward continues to favor selling strength rather than chasing weakness. The key for the week ahead is whether the 155.00 handle continues to act as a magnet and stabilizer, or whether a clean break lower unlocks a sharper “air pocket” move as stops and leveraged positioning get forced to adjust. Our plan stays simple: treat…...

The first meaningful U.S. data point of Monday’s New York session is the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for December, due 15 December 2025 at 13:30 UK time (08:30 ET). While it’s “just” a regional survey, it often punches above its weight in markets because it lands early, moves fast, and can jolt rates and FX when positioning is one-sided. Last month’s release reminded everyone why this print matters: the headline index jumped to 18.7 in November, signalling a solid expansion in reported activity across New York state manufacturers. The numbers that matter: Previous (Nov): 18.7 Consensus (Dec): 10.6 Street…

Gold (XAUUSD) remains firmly in focus into year-end, with price continuing to respect a bullish structure and holding above the key 4,260 – 4,280 support/retest zone. The broader macro backdrop is still constructive for bullion: the post-Fed easing impulse has kept the market highly sensitive to U.S. real-rate and USD swings, while ongoing geopolitical and risk-sentiment headlines continue to reinforce gold’s role as a portfolio hedge. With momentum intact and a clearly defined technical “line in the sand,” today’s setup is designed to participate in upside continuation while keeping risk tightly controlled around a nearby invalidation level. Gold Trade Setup:…...

The EUR/USD cross enter mid December at 1.1684 with the macro landscape tilting in favour of a stronger Euro versus the U.S. dollar. The Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut and dovish guidance have pushed U.S. yields lower and weighed on the dollar, while the European Central Bank remains in a more neutral stance with euro-area yields grinding higher. This divergence in policy expectations, combined with improving Eurozone data at the margin and a softer U.S. growth narrative, argues for buying euro dips rather than chasing the dollar. Our focus is on high-conviction opportunities only; for the week ahead, EUR/USD meets…...

USD/JPY heads into the new week at a pivotal juncture, with price action still elevated but increasingly vulnerable to a policy-driven inflection. The macro backdrop is dominated by a high-impact central bank cluster, where shifting expectations around Fed easing and potential BoJ normalization are tightening the rate-differential narrative that has supported USD/JPY for much of the cycle. With U.S. yields stabilizing near recent highs and risk sentiment sensitive to policy guidance, the pair is set up for a decisive move as markets reprice the next phase of the U.S. – Japan divergence story. Against this backdrop, we focus on an…...

Gold begins the new week holding firm near record territory, with market attention squarely on the Federal Reserve decision midweek. With US yields stabilising around recent levels and rate expectations leaning toward an easing tilt, the macro backdrop remains supportive for Gold. Investors are positioning for softer real yields and a potentially weaker dollar. In this environment, gold continues to attract both strategic allocation and tactical momentum flows, reinforcing the case for a buy-the-dip and breakout-friendly bias into key event risk. From a price-action perspective, Gold has maintained a strong bullish structure, suggesting that dips into well-defined support zones may…...

USD/JPY enters the new week at a pivotal inflection point, with price action increasingly sensitive to U.S. rate expectations and the evolving Fed / BoJ policy divergence. After consolidating around the mid-154.00s, the pair appears vulnerable to a volatility expansion as markets position for key central bank risk and potential shifts in yield differentials. With U.S. 10-year yields stabilising near recent ranges and the dollar showing signs of fatigue, the near-term balance of risk increasingly favours downside continuation. From a macro perspective, a dovish tilt from the Federal Reserve would likely compress U.S.–Japan rate spreads further, while persistent speculation around…...

Gold enters the first week of December at a critical juncture, consolidating just above the 4,200 pivot after breaking to fresh multi-week highs. With US 10-year yields easing back from recent peaks and markets now heavily discounting a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term. The macro backdrop is increasingly supportive for non-yielding and defensive assets. At the same time, persistent geopolitical tensions, elevated fiscal deficits and renewed volatility across equities and crypto continue to underpin demand for “hard” stores of value. We consider Gold to be an A+ conviction long for the remainder of the week. The setup…...

USD/JPY enters the week at elevated levels around 155.50, but the balance of risks is shifting decisively in favor of yen strength. After years of ultra-easy policy, the Bank of Japan is now openly debating further rate hikes and tolerating higher domestic yields, while the Federal Reserve approaches the later stages of its own easing cycle. This evolving policy convergence is steadily eroding the yield advantage that has underpinned the long-standing carry trade in USD/JPY. At the same time, price action is starting to confirm the macro turn. The pair has failed to sustain moves toward the prior highs near…...

Gold continues to justify its status as the core defensive asset in the current macro environment. With U.S. 10-year yields easing back toward the 4% handle and markets increasingly pricing a lower-for-longer Fed path, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive for higher precious-metal prices. At the same time, central-bank buying, resilient ETF inflows, and persistent geopolitical risk are underpinning demand on every corrective dip. Technically, Gold is consolidating above prior breakout levels, with buyers consistently defending the 4,100 – 4,150 zone and momentum still skewed to the upside. Against this backdrop, we will focus on a high-conviction, A+ grade “buy-the-dip” strategy…...