Author: TerraBullMarkets

Markets have one eye on inflation, but tomorrow’s US jobs report is the real trigger that could flip the Fed narrative and send rates, the dollar, and risk assets lurching in seconds. Tomorrow’s US jobs report lands at an awkward moment for markets. Investors are trying to decide whether the US economy is merely cooling toward trend, or if the labor market is finally rolling over in a way that forces the Federal Reserve to pivot sooner than expected. With inflation data published later in the week, the NFP print becomes the first major volatility catalyst, and it is likely…

USDJPY opens the week at an inflection point, with price action increasingly sensitive to the two forces that matter most for this pair: US yield direction and Japan-specific policy risk. The backdrop remains unusually “headline-reactive” for yen crosses—where sudden spikes can be driven by shifting rate expectations, risk sentiment, or renewed attention on Japan’s FX policy posture. Against that backdrop, the market is also weighing whether the latest moves in the dollar and Treasury yields are sustainable or vulnerable to another reversal as the week’s macro calendar gathers pace. Today’s plan focuses on trading USDJPY with a clear framework: identify…...

Gold has started the new week with a constructive tone, holding firm above key mean-support zones after last week’s volatility and continuing to attract buyers on shallow pullbacks. With DXY still soft overall and US yields elevated but stable, price action is being driven by the push-and-pull between dollar weakness (supportive for bullion) and rate pressure (which can cap upside when yields surge). In this environment, the highest-probability approach is typically to trade with the underlying trend while being selective on entries, prioritizing structured pullbacks into well-defined support rather than chasing momentum at the top of the range. Today’s plan…...

We consider JOLTs as the market’s vacancy ‘thermometer’, and today’s reading may show the heat coming out of US hiring. At 15:00 UK time (10:00 ET) markets get a fresh read on US labor-demand momentum via JOLTS Job Openings (Dec 2025). While JOLTS is a backward-looking “stock” measure which tells us how many vacancies were open at month-end. It has increased relevance because it anchors the debate around whether the labor market is re-tightening or cooling further, and feeds directly into rate expectations, the USD, yields, and risk assets. The latest published JOLTS data showed openings around 7.146M in November, a…

AUD/JPY is setting up as a high-conviction risk-proxy trade into the London open, where price action is typically driven by shifts in broader sentiment rather than idiosyncratic domestic headlines. With volatility still elevated and cross-asset signals pointing to a fragile risk backdrop, AUD/JPY remains one of the cleanest expressions of “risk-off” positioning: the Australian dollar tends to underperform when equities and growth expectations soften, while the Japanese yen often attracts defensive demand when markets de-risk. From a technical perspective, the pair has rebounded into a well-defined supply/mean-reversion zone, creating an attractive sell-the-rally framework with clear invalidation. This structure offers an…...

Gold is starting the session with momentum still firmly intact after a powerful upside impulse, but the market has now transitioned into a more tactical phase where entry quality matters more than conviction. With headline risk still elevated and safe-haven demand underpinning dips, the broader bias remains constructive. However, rising U.S. yields introduce a meaningful near-term headwind, increasing the likelihood of two-way price action and stop-runs around key data windows. Today’s edge is not in chasing strength, it’s in buying structured pullbacks into clearly defined support/mean-reversion zones or adding only on clean breakout acceptance. The plan below focuses on high-probability…...

AUD/JPY is setting up as one of the cleaner, high-beta opportunities this week because it sits at the intersection of two powerful drivers: relative central-bank policy and global risk appetite. With the RBA’s tightening stance reinforcing yield support for the Australian dollar, and the yen continuing to behave as the market’s primary funding/hedge currency during swings in sentiment, AUD/JPY can move quickly when volatility rises. Add in a US macro backdrop distorted by shutdown-related uncertainty around data timing and expectations, and the result is a pair that tends to trend decisively when the rate-differential narrative and risk tone align. AUDJPY…...

Gold is entering today’s session with momentum firmly back on the bid, reinforcing its role as the market’s preferred hedge when policy uncertainty rises and the rates narrative becomes less predictable. With the US data calendar disrupted by the partial government shutdown, traders are leaning more heavily on proxy indicators (such as ADP and ISM Services) alongside real-time headline flow, creating a backdrop where expectations around the Fed path can reprice quickly. In this environment, Gold tends to respond most directly to the interplay between the US dollar and real yields, while broader risk sentiment can either amplify moves (when…...

Gold has started the week with a decisive upside push, with momentum clearly back in control as the market reprices the USD and rates narrative following the latest central-bank messaging. With volatility elevated and price action increasingly reactive around US yields and headline flow, the best opportunities are likely to come from disciplined execution around key pullback zones rather than chasing breakouts at extended levels. Today’s focus is straightforward: monitor the relationship between DXY, US10Y/real yields, and risk sentiment, because that is the engine currently driving directional follow-through in Gold prices. Gold Trade Setup: Asset Bias & Entries Stop /…...

Gold continues to trade with a strong bid and elevated momentum, behaving less like a mean-reverting commodity and more like a macro “risk barometer.” With price holding in a high-volatility regime, the market is increasingly sensitive to shifts in U.S. yields, the U.S. dollar, and broader risk sentiment. Geopolitical and policy uncertainty also remains a persistent tailwind for demand. In this environment, intraday moves can be sharp and counter-intuitive, with liquidity runs and fast retracements often occurring around key levels and major market windows. Into today and the week ahead, the highest-quality opportunities are likely to come from trading around…...