Author: TerraBullMarkets

USD/JPY begins the week on a firm footing near 154.25, with the pair consolidating below the critical 155.00 resistance as traders position ahead of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI release and this week’s heavy U.S. data calendar. Despite sustained dollar strength on resilient U.S. yields and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, the yen remains underpinned by elevated intervention risk following persistent warnings from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. With Japanese markets closed earlier today for Culture Day and liquidity thinning into the 15:00 UK (10:00 ET) options cut, price action has been driven by positioning and option hedging flows rather than new…...

The USD/JPY cross enters the final trading day of October under mounting two-way pressure, with market sentiment finely balanced between post-Fed dollar softness and renewed Japanese policy vigilance. After the Federal Reserve’s 25bp rate cut and confirmation that quantitative tightening will cease on December 1st, the dollar has eased modestly, while Tokyo’s hotter-than-expected core CPI (2.8% y/y) and a fresh round of verbal intervention from Japan’s Finance Ministryreinforce the yen’s policy-driven bid tone. At the same time, global risk appetite has softened following a weaker China PMI print (49.0) and continued volatility across Asian equities, further underpinning safe-haven demand for…...

Gold prices are consolidating near the $4,000 handle early Friday, easing modestly after a strong multi-week advance as the U.S. dollar firms ahead of key inflation data and the FOMC policy statement later today. Overnight, Asian trading held Gold above key structural support around $3,980 – $3,990, suggesting that buyers remain committed to defending the recent breakout zone despite lighter Friday liquidity. From a macro perspective, the metal continues to benefit from an ongoing re-rating in global rate expectations, with markets still anticipating multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026 despite a temporary repricing of near-term easing. Meanwhile, persistent geopolitical risks,…...

The October Chicago PMI, due Friday 31 October at 13:45 UK time, will offer a final glimpse into U.S. manufacturing momentum ahead of next week’s critical ISM and employment data. With last month’s reading at 40.6, marking a deep contraction and the 22nd consecutive sub-50 print, markets will be watching closely for signs that the regional factory sector is stabilizing after months of weakness. Consensus expectations point to a modest rebound to 42.3, but the risk balance remains finely poised as regional Fed surveys and flash PMI data deliver a mixed message on the health of U.S. industry. Recent data…

EUR/USD remains one of the most strategically important major pairs this week, and we currently hold a bearish tactical bias. The Federal Reserve delivered a 25 bp “insurance cut” and pushed back firmly against the idea of an automatic follow-up cut in December. U.S. front-end yields stayed supported and the dollar caught a fresh bid. At the same time, the European Central Bank is widely expected to hold rates while acknowledging soft Eurozone growth and moderating inflation, which leaves very little near-term hawkish support for the euro. Technically, EUR/USD has already broken below the 1.1600 figure and continues to trade heavy,…...

The Federal Reserve delivers its October policy decision on Wednesday, with the statement due at 19:00 UK and Chair Powell’s press conference at 19:30 UK. Markets are finely balanced between relief at gradually cooling inflation and concern over a softening labor backdrop, leaving the policy path beyond October highly sensitive to the Fed’s tone. In this preview, we set out Our Call for the rate decision and Our View on the press conference, highlighting the key phrases to watch, how they could shift expectations for December, and the likely cross-asset reactions. For traders, the absence of a new dot plot…

Gold begins the week at elevated levels near the psychologically important 4,000 handle, where liquidity and option interest typically concentrate. Our high-conviction stance is to fade strength into 3,995 – 4,010, seeking to exploit asymmetric downside risk should U.S. yields and the dollar firm on policy and data impulses. This view earns our A+ (3/3) rating because fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment/positioning are aligned: policy guidance and inflation expectations remain the key macro drivers, 4,000 is a well-defined supply/stop zone technically, and positioning is prone to squeezes/unwinds around round numbers. Execution-wise, we prefer patience and precision: wait for a clear rejection…...

USD/JPY is pinned just below the 152 handle into a dense policy window, with the short-on-rallies thesis intact. The macro skew remains for a narrowing rate-differential, the Fed is poised to ease while BoJ optics are incrementally less dovish, reducing the one-way USD carry tailwind. Officials’ sensitivity to “rapid, one-sided” FX moves keeps the downside asymmetry alive. Technically, repeated failures above 152 – 153, fading momentum, and well-mapped stop pockets create an attractive environment to fade strength into 151.95 – 152.40, keep risk tight above 153.10, and add on confirmation below 151.50. With sizeable option interest around 153.00 today and…...

Gold enters the week trading near $4,075 (07:02 UK), coming off a sharp pullback from mid-October highs above $4,100. Our A+ (3/3) conviction this week is sell-the-bounce: we’re looking to fade strength into $4,115 – 4,135 (with a tactical add on a weak $4,040 – $4,060 retest) against a tight, clearly defined invalidation at $4,168 or any daily close >$4,160. Initial downside magnets sit at $4,010 and $3,980, with a stretch target to $3,925. The edge comes from alignment across fundamentals (event-risk path skewed to near-term USD/real-yield resilience into the Fed), technicals (first lower-high sell zone at prior breakdown/round-number supply),…...

USD/JPY begins the week perched just under the 153.00 big figure, an area that has repeatedly capped rallies and carries heavy optionality and stop activity. Our A+ (3/3) short-biased setup rests on three aligned pillars. Fundamentally: Markets lean toward easier U.S. policy guidance over the near term while BoJ risk skews less-dovish, narrowing policy-spread tailwinds that have powered the pair higher. Technically: 153.00 – 153.40 is a well-defined supply zone with multiple prior rejections and a clean downside ladder toward 151s/150s if momentum turns. Sentiment: Current sentiment adds confluence: crowded carry and dealer gamma around the big figures suggest asymmetric payoff…...