Author: TerraBullMarkets

Sterling enters the new week on the defensive, with GBP/USD consolidating near 1.31 after a subdued performance through the late-Asian and early-European sessions. The pair continues to trade under a heavy macro cloud following the Bank of England’s dovish hold at 4.00%, where a narrow 5 – 4 vote revealed rising internal pressure for rate cuts. Market-implied pricing now reflects a strong probability of an initial 25 bp cut in December, pulling rate differentials sharply against the pound as U.S. data resilience sustains Fed patience. From a technical perspective, the structure remains decisively bearish. Repeated failures around 1.3165 – 1.3210…...

Markets head into Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls report on edge, with the data set to test the Fed’s “soft-landing” narrative after a string of subdued employment readings. Consensus expects a modest rebound to +55k from September’s meagre +22k, but the tone across leading indicators suggests hiring momentum remains weak heading into Q4. ISM employment gauges in both manufacturing and services are entrenched below 50. ADP’s latest private-sector print showed only a +42k rise, and job openings continue to trend lower. Taken together, the mosaic of data points to a labor market that is losing steam rather than stabilizing, a critical inflection…

USD/CAD continues to command attention this week as fundamental and technical forces align in favor of further U.S. dollar strength. After the Bank of Canada’s 25bp rate cut on October 29th and dovish forward guidance, the Canadian dollar remains under pressure amid a deteriorating domestic growth outlook and persistent disinflation. In contrast, the U.S. economy remains resilient, with service-sector data and labor indicators suggesting sustained momentum. The resulting policy divergence between a data-dependent, higher-for-longer Federal Reserve and an easing-tilted Bank of Canada reinforces a bullish bias for USD/CAD into the week’s key data events. Technically, the pair has confirmed a decisive…...

The euro enters the week under renewed selling pressure, with EUR/USD struggling to sustain momentum above the 1.1500 handle as macro conditions continue to favor the U.S. dollar. Despite a broadly cautious risk backdrop, the greenback has found fresh support from resilient U.S. data, hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, and persistent yield differentials that reinforce its carry advantage. Meanwhile, the eurozone faces a confluence of headwinds, soft PMI prints, stagnating growth indicators, and moderating inflation momentum, all of which erode support for the single currency. Technically: EUR/USD has broken below its recent rising trendline, suggesting a tactical short setup may be in…...

The USD/JPY remains a focal point for global FX traders as shifting U.S. rate expectations, Japanese yield dynamics, and cross-market risk sentiment continue to dictate momentum. Following a volatile October marked by repeated tests above key psychological resistance, the pair now trades within a technically significant consolidation range. With U.S. Treasury yields stabilising near multi-month highs and the Bank of Japan signalling limited appetite for aggressive tightening, policy divergence continues to underpin the dollar. However, signs of slowing U.S. inflation and renewed intervention risk from Tokyo create a tactical environment where positioning and timing are critical. This Gold setup zeroes…...

USD/JPY begins the week on a firm footing near 154.25, with the pair consolidating below the critical 155.00 resistance as traders position ahead of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI release and this week’s heavy U.S. data calendar. Despite sustained dollar strength on resilient U.S. yields and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, the yen remains underpinned by elevated intervention risk following persistent warnings from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. With Japanese markets closed earlier today for Culture Day and liquidity thinning into the 15:00 UK (10:00 ET) options cut, price action has been driven by positioning and option hedging flows rather than new…...

The USD/JPY cross enters the final trading day of October under mounting two-way pressure, with market sentiment finely balanced between post-Fed dollar softness and renewed Japanese policy vigilance. After the Federal Reserve’s 25bp rate cut and confirmation that quantitative tightening will cease on December 1st, the dollar has eased modestly, while Tokyo’s hotter-than-expected core CPI (2.8% y/y) and a fresh round of verbal intervention from Japan’s Finance Ministryreinforce the yen’s policy-driven bid tone. At the same time, global risk appetite has softened following a weaker China PMI print (49.0) and continued volatility across Asian equities, further underpinning safe-haven demand for…...

Gold prices are consolidating near the $4,000 handle early Friday, easing modestly after a strong multi-week advance as the U.S. dollar firms ahead of key inflation data and the FOMC policy statement later today. Overnight, Asian trading held Gold above key structural support around $3,980 – $3,990, suggesting that buyers remain committed to defending the recent breakout zone despite lighter Friday liquidity. From a macro perspective, the metal continues to benefit from an ongoing re-rating in global rate expectations, with markets still anticipating multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026 despite a temporary repricing of near-term easing. Meanwhile, persistent geopolitical risks,…...

The October Chicago PMI, due Friday 31 October at 13:45 UK time, will offer a final glimpse into U.S. manufacturing momentum ahead of next week’s critical ISM and employment data. With last month’s reading at 40.6, marking a deep contraction and the 22nd consecutive sub-50 print, markets will be watching closely for signs that the regional factory sector is stabilizing after months of weakness. Consensus expectations point to a modest rebound to 42.3, but the risk balance remains finely poised as regional Fed surveys and flash PMI data deliver a mixed message on the health of U.S. industry. Recent data…

EUR/USD remains one of the most strategically important major pairs this week, and we currently hold a bearish tactical bias. The Federal Reserve delivered a 25 bp “insurance cut” and pushed back firmly against the idea of an automatic follow-up cut in December. U.S. front-end yields stayed supported and the dollar caught a fresh bid. At the same time, the European Central Bank is widely expected to hold rates while acknowledging soft Eurozone growth and moderating inflation, which leaves very little near-term hawkish support for the euro. Technically, EUR/USD has already broken below the 1.1600 figure and continues to trade heavy,…...