EURJPY Trade Idea – 11/9/2025 EURJPY Trade Idea: We’re treating 173.00–173.80 as the primary fade zone in EUR/JPY, with a tactical add only on a clear wick/rejection in 174.10–174.40. Risk is tightly defined at 174.60 (or a daily close >174.40). The edge is three-fold: fundamentals (ECB likely cautious while the yen retains haven support into...
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview – 12th September We head into tomorrow’s print looking for a modest softening in sentiment following August’s downtick. The prior headline was 58.2; consensus is currently 58, and we are looking look for slightly below at 56.5 – 57.0. Our bias reflects softer labor perceptions and a small uptick in gasoline prices keeping inflation expectations sticky, partly offset by equity strength and easier mortgage rates. Market impact should be contained unless we see an outsized move in 1-yr inflation expectations (above 5%) or a headline below 55, which would carry clearer implications for front-end rates and…
US CPI & Initial Weekly Claims Preview – 11/9/2025 The August CPI lands on Thu 11 Sep, 13:30 UK (08:30 ET) alongside Initial Jobless Claims, setting the tone for front-end rates and the USD ahead of the Fed blackout. The Street is looking for Core CPI +0.3% MoM (3.1% YoY) with the CPI index at 323.9. Our base case is the same. Sticky services (most notably shelter) offset by soft core goods, with travel categories the being the key swing risk. Claims should remain range bound (235–240k), consistent with a gradually cooling but still resilient labor market. Upside core risk…
USDJPY Trade Idea – 10/9/2025 We approach USD/JPY with a fade-rallies bias into 147.80–148.60 (contingency fade near 149.00 only on a clear intraday rejection). The macro skew remains USD-negative into this week’s U.S. inflation prints after softer labor data, while Japan’s political headlines and next week’s BoJ keep the yen’s haven bid in play. Technically,...
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US PPI Expectations Preview – 10/9/2025 US PPI Expectations Preview: Producer Price Index (Aug) — Brief Preview The August PPI (Wed 10 Sep, 13:30 UK / 08:30 ET) is a key pipeline read into core PCE via core‐goods and business services costs. After July’s outsized +0.9% jump, driven largely by services margins – consensus looks for cooler prints (headline +0.3% m/m, core +0.3% to 0.4%, core y/y 3.5 to3.6%). The market will focus on three things: (1) whether trade services and fee categories mean-revert, (2) the core-core gauge (ex food, energy, and trade) as the cleanest signal for policy, and…
USDCHF Trade Idea – 9/9/2025 We’re approaching USD/CHF with a sell-the-rally framework into 0.7960–0.8000, with a tactical add on any failed break of 0.8035–0.8060. The macro skew is USD-negative into this week’s inflation prints, while the franc retains a defensive bid ahead of the late-September SNB meeting. Technically, the pair has accepted below 0.80 with...
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GBPJPY Trade Idea – 8/9/2025 Here’s the framework for this week’s GBP/JPY trade. We’re treating the latest pop as headline-driven and prefer fading strength into the 200.60–201.40 supply zone, with risk defined above 202.00/202.30. The setup scores A+ as it aligns fundamentals (event-heavy week with US PPI/CPI and UK GDP that can restore JPY’s haven...
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BLS Nonfarm Payrolls – Preliminary Benchmark Revision On Tuesday, 9 September 2025 at 15:00 UK / 10:00 ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its BLS Nonfarm Payrolls preliminary annual benchmark revision, an annual re-anchor of the CES survey to unemployment-insurance tax records (QCEW) at the March 2025 benchmark. This is a level adjustment at a single date and not a republication of the full monthly path; the full history will be revised with the January 2026 Employment Situation released in February 2026. Street previews lean toward a material downward revision (−0.3% to −0.6%), and our base case is…
Gold Trade Setup – 4/9/2025 Gold (XAUUSD) enters today’s session with a constructive backdrop: ISM manufacturing’s contraction underscores a soft-growth tone that helps keep real-yield headwinds contained. In that environment, dips are more likely to be absorbed than extended, provided U.S. data don’t spark a sharp rise in yields or the dollar. Technically, the breakout...
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EURUSD Trade Setup – 4/9/2025 EUR/USD presents a high-conviction long for the coming sessions. On the macro side, Euro-area inflation has stabilized enough to keep the ECB patient, while U.S. growth data have softened at the margin, leaving the market biased toward additional Fed easing. That policy divergence narrative, combined with contained real yields, reduces...
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