Euro Area Retail Sales Aug – Preview – 10.6.25
Euro Area Retail Sales (Aug) prints on Monday, 06 October 2025 at 10:00 UK time, offering a high-frequency read on household demand heading into Q4. Against a backdrop of softer consumer confidence and uneven country data, our base case is –0.1% m/m (prior –0.5%), modestly below consensus (+0.1%) and street forecasts of (+0.2%).
Germany and Italy point to weaker non-food volumes, while Spain offers a tourism-boosted offset and France looks broadly flat on volume-type gauges.
Lower August energy prices help fuel volumes at the margin, but not enough to overcome core retail softness. Netting the large economies with smaller member states, the GDP-weighted mix still leans slightly negative.
Our Call
We expect Euro Area Retail Sales, m/m (Aug) to come in at –0.1% vs previous –0.5%, consensus +0.1%, street +0.2%. A mild downside vs both Consensus estimates and street forecasts.
Why:
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Germany (largest weight): –0.2% m/m (real) – online/mail-order –2.0% and non-food –1.0% dragged; July was revised weaker (–0.5%). This alone leans the bloc lower.
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Italy: –0.3% m/m (volume) – ISTAT shows a clean decline.
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Spain: +0.4% m/m (volume) – tourism-heavy August gave a lift, partly offsetting core weakness.
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France: best read is +0.1% m/m on volume-type gauges; business surveys flagged a notable deterioration in retail climate in August, limiting any upside.
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Rest of bloc (net neutral/slightly negative):
Netherlands modestly positive (+0.1% m/m, volumes +1.4% y/y), Belgium +0.4% m/m, Portugal –0.7% m/m, Ireland –1.0% m/m (–0.3% ex-motors). These roughly net to a small drag after Germany & Italy. -
Cross-checks: Eurostat reported –0.5% m/m in July, so the base is low, but the “big four” mix for August still looks slightly negative (back-of-envelope GDP-weighted blend –0.06% m/m).
Macro Context
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Consumer mood slipped in August (ECFIN consumer confidence –15.5, ESI lower), consistent with subdued volumes into month-end.
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Energy/fuel: August euro-area energy price indices ticked down m/m, which helps fuel volumes at the margin but not enough to offset Germany/Italy’s broad non-food softness.
Sub-Bucket Bias – Eurostat Structure
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Non-food (ex fuel): soft/negative – Germany & Italy weakness dominates.
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Food: flat to slightly positive – mixed country prints.
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Automotive fuel: mild positive on cheaper energy, but a small weight (9%) limits impact.
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Upside tail (0.0% to +0.2% m/m): a firmer-than-signalled France print and stronger Netherlands/Belgium revisions.
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Downside tail (–0.2% to –0.3% m/m): if Germany’s drop is revised lower again and Portugal/Ireland weakness is larger than Eurostat seasonal factors anticipate.
Market Take – FX & Rates
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At –0.1% (base): EUR mildly offered; EUR/USD dips a few pips, EUR/GBP soft; front-end EGBs bid on consumption softness.
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At +0.2% or better: fade the negativity. EUR squeezes higher, especially if y/y lands >2.3% (consensus is 2.2%).
Conclusion
We are expecting to see a mild downside surprise versus forecasts, with the risk skewed –0.2% to 0.0% m/m depending on revisions and the non-food bucket.
At –0.1%, the market read should be EUR-dovish at the margins (small EUR/USD dip, softer EUR/GBP) and EGB-supportive at the front end, while a +0.2% or better outcome, especially if accompanied by firmer y/y, would likely prompt a brief EUR relief pop.
We will be focusing on (1) Germany / Italy revisions, (2) the non-food component, and (3) any outsized contribution from fuel: we see those internals as determining whether to fade or follow the first EUR move after 10:00 UK time.
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