EURUSD A+ Trade Setup — 2 Sep 2025

EURUSD A+ Trade Setup — 2 Sep 2025 Thesis: Stay constructive EUR/USD and EUR/USD A+ Trade Setup buy weakness. The pair is carving a sequence of higher lows since mid-August while the macro backdrop tilts USD-soft as markets lean toward a September Fed cut and real yields compress (gold’s strength is the tell). Options flow remains USD-put supportive. This is a “buy pullbacks, not breakouts” day—scale in on dips, add only after clean confirmations. EUR/USD A+ Trade Setup Pair (Ref Px) Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals • technicals • positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) EUR/USD (1.1700) Long on dips 1.1665–1.1690; add on firm break/hold >1.1725/1.1760 1.1590 (below last HL & MA cluster) 1.1800 / 1.1900 (stretch 1.2000) USD on the back foot as markets lean to a Sep Fed cut; gold’s surge underscores the lower-real-yields vibe. Structure of higher lows intact since mid-Aug; options flow remains USD-put supportive; buy pullbacks not breakouts. Today: Euro area flash HICP) • 15:00 US ISM mfg. Thu 13:15 ADP, 15:00 ISM services • Fri 13:30 NFP. Trade plan (using 1.1700 as reference): Primary entry: 1.1665–1.1690 on pullbacks into demand. Add-on (confirmation): After a firm break and hold >1.1725/1.1760 (ideally a 30–60min close holding above). Invalidation/stop: 1.1590, beneath the last higher low and the short-term moving-average cluster. A daily close below there negates the structure. Targets: 1.1800, then 1.1900; stretch 1.2000 if momentum and data align. Size & pacing: Start ½–⅔ size on the dip zone; reserve residual risk for the add-on only if the market proves it. Why this is A+ (3/3): Fundamentals: The USD is on the back foot as the market prices greater odds of a September Fed cut. Lower real-yield dynamics (mirrored by the gold bid) reduce the USD’s carry appeal near term. Euro-area inflation data today can keep the ECB “not dovish enough to hurt EUR,” while the big U.S. prints later in the week are asymmetric—soft or merely mixed numbers reinforce USD selling. Technicals: Since mid-August, EUR/USD has respected rising swing lows with buyers reliably defending pullbacks. The 1.1665–1.1690 pocket aligns with prior demand and intraday moving-average support. A clean topside break above 1.1725 → 1.1760 confirms continuation and often triggers follow-through as late longs chase. Positioning & flows: IMM/CFTC (to Aug 26) shows EUR still net long and USD index shorts present but trimmed—i.e., room to re-add on good news. Options flow remains skewed toward USD puts, providing dip demand in EUR/USD rather than aggressive breakout chasing. Liquidity/stop pockets to map: Sell-stops: <1.1590–1.1600 (a breach likely accelerates lower; stand down if tripped). Buy-stops: >1.1725 → 1.1760 (expect momentum entries and late-long chasing through this band). Catalysts (UK times): Today: Euro area flash HICP (Aug); 15:00 US ISM Manufacturing. Thu: 13:15 ADP; 15:00 ISM Services. Fri: 13:30 NFP. Into each release, avoid adding fresh risk at the exact print; fade knee-jerk dips into the entry zone only if structure holds and spreads normalize. Risk management & execution notes: Respect 1.1590: if taken, the “higher-lows” thesis is wrong—exit without debate. If price runs to 1.1800 ahead of Friday, trail stops under new higher lows and harvest partials; re-load only on fresh dips. News-driven spikes above 1.1760 require a hold (not just a wick) before adding. In short: Buy EUR/USD on dips 1.1665–1.1690, add on a proven break >1.1725/1.1760, defend 1.1590, aim 1.18/1.19 (stretch 1.20). EURUSD A+ Trade Setup — 2 Sep 2025 For similar Forex Markets news please visit our forex page.Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. 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