EURUSD Trade Idea – 12/9/2025

EURUSD Trade Idea – 12/9/2025 We are initiating a sell-the-rally stance in EUR/USD, preferring entries into 1.1745–1.1780 where price has repeatedly met supply, with a momentum add below 1.1690 if sellers regain control. The near-term macro skew still leans USD-firm after the hotter-than-expected August CPI, while the ECB’s hold and data-dependent tone offers little incremental support for the euro. Into today’s UK GDP and University of Michigan prints – and with the FOMC up next—the balance of risks favors USD resilience over EUR follow-through. Positioning adds asymmetry: EUR remains net-long among speculative accounts, leaving room for a disappointment bleed if yields nudge higher or risk sentiment softens. Technically, continued acceptance below 1.18 and repeated failures at 1.175–1.178 define a clean risk box; it’s the right place to lean against, with invalidation at 1.1835 (or a daily close >1.1820) and clear air toward 1.1650 if the fade sticks. EURUSD Trade Idea: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) EUR/USD – 1.1722 Short on pops 1.1745–1.1780; momentum add on <1.1690 1.1835 (or daily close > 1.1820) 1.1650 / 1.1580 Fundamentals: US CPI (Aug) beat (0.4% m/m; 2.9% y/y, core 3.1%) tilts near-term USD-firm; ECB left rates unchanged & cautious → asymmetry lower in EUR. Positioning: EUR specs remain net-long → room for disappointment bleed. Technicals: Repeated supply 1.175–1.178; clean air to 1.165. (Bureau of Labor Statistics) Today 07:00 UK GDP (Jul); 15:00 U. Michigan; Next Tue–Wed FOMC (statement ~19:00 UK). (Office for National Statistics) Chart by TradingView- – EURUSD Trade Idea – 12.9.2025 Conclusion — Execution & Risk Work shorts only on a rejection in the 1.1745–1.1780 band or on momentum through 1.1690. Use 1.1835 (or a daily close >1.1820) as hard invalidation. Manage targets at 1.1650 (take partials, trail to breakeven) and 1.1580 for extension. Into today’s 07:00 UK GDP and 15:00 U. Michigan, keep size modest and reassess if yields or risk sentiment swing sharply. Ahead of next week’s FOMC (~19:00 UK statement), trim leverage; if guidance turns unexpectedly dovish and price closes above 1.1820/35, stand down and reassess the bias.   For similar Forex Trade Setups please visit our forex trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.           TerraBullMarkets...