EURUSD starts the week under pressure as the macro backdrop tilts back in favor of the U.S. dollar. Renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle East has supported the greenback and kept U.S. yields firm, while the Euro remains more vulnerable to the growth. In addition, energy implications of a higher oil-price environment. From a relative-macro perspective, this creates a difficult short-term backdrop for the single currency, particularly if risk sentiment remains fragile and dollar demand stays elevated. Technically, EURUSD is showing signs of vulnerability into rallies rather than strength on dips. The broader price structure favoring sellers while the market reassesses the balance between USD support, yield dynamics, and Eurozone sensitivity to the current external shock. With sentiment, fundamentals, and short-term chart structure aligned, the bias remains to sell strength rather than chase weakness, focusing on disciplined entries around resistance and clear invalidation levels. EURUSD Trade Setup: Pair (spot) Bias & Entries (updated) Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (Fundamentals / Technicals / Sentiment) Price action driver Near-term catalysts (UK) EURUSD SHORT – Sell rallies into 1.1765 – 1.1790; secondary entry on break below 1.1735 Above 1.1825 T1: 1.1685 T2: 1.1640 T3: 1.1605 Fundamentals: The oil shock & firmer USD/yields is a poor mix for the euro area as a net energy importer; ECB’s Schnabel signalled patience/data-dependence into the energy shock. Technicals: The DXY 1H is firm above the mean while risk tone is wobbling; EURUSD is vulnerable to a squeeze lower Sentiment: CFTC shows asset managers heavily long euro and leveraged funds still net long, so a USD squeeze can bite harder. USD / DXY, US 10Y, oil shock Monday 20th April: 17:40: Lagarde keynote; Tue: 12:30 U.S. retail sales; Tue 15:00: Warsh hearing. Chart by TradingView – EURUSD Trade Setup – 20th April Conclusion Overall, the EURUSD setup remains attractive on the short side while the market continues to price a firmer dollar, resilient U.S. yields, and a less supportive macro backdrop for Europe. As long as rallies remain corrective and the pair fails to reclaim key resistance with conviction, the path of least resistance remains lower. Near-term price action is still likely to be driven primarily by USD direction, U.S. yield moves, and any fresh geopolitical headlines that reinforce defensive dollar demand. As always, execution matters. Traders should remain patient for clean entries, respect invalidation levels, and stay alert to scheduled macro catalysts that could alter the tone quickly. For now, however, EUR/USD remains one of the cleaner expressions of the current macro theme and continues to offer a compelling bearish setup for the session ahead. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk; manage exposure accordingly. For similar FX Trade Setups please visit our FX Trade Ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...
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