EURUSD Trade Setup – 4/9/2025 EUR/USD presents a high-conviction long for the coming sessions. On the macro side, Euro-area inflation has stabilized enough to keep the ECB patient, while U.S. growth data have softened at the margin, leaving the market biased toward additional Fed easing. That policy divergence narrative, combined with contained real yields, reduces downside USD carry and supports EUR on dips. Technically, the pair continues to carve higher lows from mid-August, with well-defined inflection levels at 1.1725/1.1760 that can unlock momentum if reclaimed. Positioning and options flow (elevated but not extreme EUR longs; persistent USD-put demand) argue for “buy-the-dip” execution over chasing breakouts. Near-term event risk – ADP, ISM Services, and Friday’s NFP—should be treated as volatility windows rather than thesis changers unless they meaningfully shift the rates path. Pair / Asset (Ref Px) Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) EUR/USD (1.1700) Long on dips 1.1640–1.1680; add on >1.1725/1.1760 1.1550 (below HL/MA cluster) 1.1800 / 1.1900 Euro flash HICP 2.1% (Aug) supports EUR; markets lean to Sept Fed cut barring very hot data. Trend still higher-lows since mid-Aug; EUR IMM net long (~123k) argues buy-the-dip, not chase. Today 13:15 ADP • 15:00 ISM Services • Fri 13:30 NFP. Conclusion The trade remains A+ (3/3): fundamentally supportive (ECB steady vs. Fed-easing bias), technically constructive (higher-low structure with clear triggers), and sentiment/positioning favorable (dips absorbed, limited chase risk). Execute by scaling in 1.1640–1.1680, adding on a clean hold above 1.1725/1.1760; set 1.1550 as structural invalidation. Initial profit objectives sit at 1.1800 and 1.1900, with scope to reassess if data materially alter the rates outlook. Manage size into data releases, trim risk if UST 10-yr and the dollar break higher together, and let the position work from a defined-risk base with asymmetric upside. EURUSD Trade Setup – 4/9/2025 For similar Forex Trade Setups please visit our forex trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...
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