EURUSD Trade Setup – 5th March

EURUSD enters the London session with the macro backdrop still firmly USD-supportive. The US Dollar Index remains bid near the 99-handle while US 10-year yields hold elevated around 4.12%, keeping rate differentials and carry dynamics tilted in the dollar’s favor. At the same time, volatility is being sustained by ongoing geopolitical headline risk and oil-driven inflation sensitivity, which tends to reinforce demand for USD liquidity during risk-off pulses. With a heavy US data window later today (13:30 UK) and ECB meeting accounts at 12:30 UK, conditions are set for sharp intraday swings, making structure, liquidity and invalidation levels critical. Our base case is that rallies in EURUSD remain sellable into a defined supply zone, with downside targets aligned to recent support and a clean risk-defined stop above the reclaim level EURUSD Trade Setup: Pair (spot) Bias & Entries (updated) Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (Fundamentals / Technicals / Sentiment) Price action driver Near-term catalysts (UK) EURUSD SHORT – Sell rallies 1.1605 – 1.1630 (scale) Above 1.1685 (clean reclaim T1: 1.1550 T2: 1.1515 T3:1.1475 Fundamentals: USD supported by higher yields + inflation impulse risk from oil; Europe more vulnerable to energy shock. Technicals: Lower-high structure; sell-the-rip into supply zone. Sentiment: Risk headline-vol keeps USD bid on spikes; stops likely above mid-1.1600’s DXY & US10Y & Risk Headlines Wed 5th March: 09:30: UK PMI 12:30: ECB accounts 13:30: US data block, including Initial Jobless Claims Chart by TradingView – EURUSD Trade Setup – 5th March Conclusion This remains a high-conviction, risk-defined “sell-the-rally” EURUSD framework into the London open, built around the interaction between DXY direction, US yields and today’s event risk. The setup is invalidated on a sustained reclaim above the stated stop zone. This would signal USD strength is fading and that the market is repricing the near-term rate/volatility impulse. Until then, we favor patience, letting price come into the entry area & scaling responsibly. We suggest taking profits progressively into first support before the US data block, where slippage and one-way moves are most likely. If the pair accelerates lower ahead of 13:30 UK, we will focus on protecting gains rather than chasing, and reassess after the data prints for continuation or mean-reversion opportunities. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk; manage exposure accordingly. For similar FX Trade Setups please visit our FX Trade Ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...