EURUSD Trade Setup Analysis – 16th Oct

For the remainder of this week (from Thursday, 16 Oct 2025), EUR/USD meets our A+ (3/3) conviction standard with fundamentals, technicals, and positioning aligned. We maintain a long bias, looking to buy pullbacks into 1.1625 – 1.1640 and add on momentum through 1.1700, with invalidation at 1.1565. The macro backdrop continues to favor a softer USD (easier Fed expectations and cooler yields) against a steadier ECB tone, while price action has carved out a durable base around 1.16. Options and flow dynamics reinforce that floor, creating attractive asymmetry toward 1.1725 and 1.1760 into week-end. EURUSD Trade Setup Analysis: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) EUR/USD  LONG on pullbacks 1.1625 – 1.1640; add on break/close >1.1700. 1.1565 (daily close below). 1.1725 – 1.1760 Fundamentals: USD softer on fresh US–China trade angst & Fed-cut expectations; euro firm with steady ECB rhetoric at IMF meetings. Technicals: Held >1.1600 base; momentum turning up with resistance window 1.1700 – 1.1760. Sentiment: Big EURUSD 1.1600 options have acted like a floor/magnet this week; CFTC positioning updates are paused in the shutdown, but prior reads showed rebuilt USD shorts and steady EUR longs, room for topside extension. Stops likely clustered below 1.1580 / above 1.1700. 13:30 Thu – Philly Fed (releases despite shutdown). Retail Sales likely delayed by the shutdown (watch CARTS/alt data headlines). ECB/Fed remarks from IMF/WB meetings through EURUSD Trade Setup Analysis – 16th Oct. Conclusion — How We’ll Execute & What to Watch We’ll stay patient on dips, scale on a confirmed break/close above 1.1700, and respect 1.1565 to keep the risk/reward skew clean. Manage the position actively around London and early New York when liquidity pockets and options expiries can accelerate moves. Key near-term monitors: US yields and growth gauges, any ECB/Fed commentary from Washington meetings, and overall risk appetite. Should the USD re-firm on data or yields, we’ll stand down quickly at the invalidation; otherwise, we aim to harvest into 1.1725/1.1760 with a trailing stop to lock in gains. This analysis is for information and education only, size appropriately and manage risk first. For similar Forex Trade Signals please visit our forex trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...