Forex Analysis 4th June – EURUSD USDCHF USDCAD
The FX landscape is being shaped by a fresh round of U-S
tariffs that doubled duties on steel and aluminium to 50 %, uncertainty ahead
of a possible Trump–Xi call and a dense run of top-tier data (US ADP,
ISM-Services and Friday’s NFP). At the same time:
- Europe
– Softer euro-area CPI and tomorrow’s ECB meeting keep rate-cut
expectations alive, capping EUR/USD rallies. - Switzerland
– May’s move back into deflation has lifted the probability of an SNB cut
to—or even through—zero next month. - Australia
– Q1 GDP and the RBA minutes were both dovish, reinforcing a “sell-rally”
bias on the AUD. - Canada
– Core inflation’s re-acceleration and a surprise Q1 export-led GDP jump
argue for a BoC pause today, but USD/CAD still clings to multi-month wedge
support. - Japan/US
– USD/JPY is coiling beneath 144.40 resistance; stronger Japanese PMI data
bolsters BoJ-hike chatter just as US fiscal worries exert a mild drag on
the dollar.
| Pair | Direction | Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Rationale |
| EUR/USD | Short (reversal) | 1.1410 | 1.1460 | 1.1310 | ING sees EUR expensive near 1.145 with likely drift toward 1.13; ECB rate‑cut expectations and firm US data cap upside. |
| USD/CHF | Long | 0.8220 | 0.8180 | 0.8320 | Dollar bid on easing risk aversion while Swiss CPI deflation locks in SNB cut prospects. |
| AUD/USD | Short | 0.6480 | 0.6520 | 0.6390 | Weak Australian GDP and dovish RBA minutes contrast with tariff uncertainty; pair biased lower while capped below 0.6530. |
| USD/CAD | Long | 1.3710 | 1.3660 | 1.3790 | Price holding wedge base; BoC expected to keep rates steady after upside inflation surprise; bullish divergence supports tactical bounce. |
| USD/JPY | Short (fade resistance) |
144.00 | 144.80 | 142.40 | Fresh negative signals with 144.40 resistance intact; bearish correction theme favours fade of rallies toward 144. |
Lingering tariff tension, diverging central-bank paths and
well-defined chart levels combine to drive the current high-conviction plays:
euro softness after a below-target CPI print and Thursday’s looming ECB rate
cut meet still-solid U-S data, making EUR/USD ripe for a fade from 1.14; the
dollar holds bid while Swiss deflation cements a June SNB cut, and a reclaim of
the 0.8200 floor favors a USD/CHF pop; in Australia, a weak Q1 GDP print and
dovish RBA minutes leave AUD/USD trapped beneath 0.65 in a bear-flag
continuation; hotter Canadian core inflation plus a surprise export-led GDP
rebound argue for a BoC pause, yet USD/CAD keeps bouncing off its multi-month
wedge base, inviting a tactical long; and although U-S yields support the
greenback, an upwardly revised Japan services PMI lifts BoJ-hike speculation
just as USD/JPY stalls under the 144.40 resistance shelf—offering an attractive
short-term fade.
For similar High-Conviction GBPUSD Trade Ideas on our forex page.
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