Forex Daily Analysis – USD/CHF, EUR/USD, GBP/USD & USD/CAD
As June trading begins, currency markets are dominated by renewed volatility driven by escalating US trade tensions, fresh tariff threats, and growing fiscal concerns. President Trump’s decision to increase steel and aluminum tariffs, coupled with deepening trade disputes with China, have significantly weakened the US Dollar. Meanwhile, central bank expectations have diverged notably, with investors reassessing their outlook for the ECB, BoE, BoC, and SNB in light of shifting economic indicators and policy signals. These dynamics create high-conviction trade opportunities in the currency markets, particularly favoring short positions in USD pairs and selective long positions in European currencies.
| Pair | Direction | Entry Levels | Stop Loss | Take Profit Targets | Detailed Rationale |
| USD/CHF | Short | 0.8210–0.8240 | 0.829 | T1: 0.8100 (April low) T2: 0.8035 (YTD low) | Renewed USD weakness triggered by fresh US tariff threats, a deepening US-China trade rift, and US fiscal instability underpin CHF demand. Technically, strong bearish momentum remains below 0.8300. Current trading around 0.8180 confirms downside bias. |
| EUR/USD | Long | 1.1360–1.1380 | 1.13 | T1: 1.1500 (Psychological/April high) T2: 1.1575 (YTD high) | USD continues under pressure amid tariff concerns and looming fiscal instability (“Sell America”). Despite potential ECB rate cut priced in, EUR remains supported. Technical breakout above 1.1400 signals further upside potential towards YTD highs. |
| GBP/USD | Long (Buy Dip) | 1.3470–1.3490 | 1.34 | T1: 1.3600 (recent highs) T2: 1.3670 (key resistance) | GBP/USD remains well-supported as broad USD weakness dominates amid US tariffs and fiscal uncertainty. GBP fundamentals remain stable despite softer manufacturing PMI. Technically, strong bullish channel with key support at 1.3400 suggests buying dips remains prudent strategy. |
| USD/CAD | Short | 1.3730–1.3750 | 1.38 | T1: 1.3620 (YTD lows) T2: 1.3550 (psychological) | USD/CAD has convincingly broken below 1.3700 to test YTD lows amid broad USD weakness. Strong Canadian GDP data supports hawkish BoC stance, enhancing CAD attractiveness. US tariffs and fiscal worries continue pressuring USD, providing high conviction short setup. |
Summary of Forex Daily Analysis
USD/CHF (Short):
With the USD under persistent pressure from tariff-related uncertainties and deteriorating US-China relations, safe-haven demand for CHF remains elevated. Technical analysis confirms a bearish bias below key resistance at 0.8300. Selling rallies towards 0.8210–0.8240 provides an attractive risk-reward profile targeting recent lows at 0.8100, and potentially extending to the year-to-date trough around 0.8035.EUR/USD (Long):
Despite the prospect of further ECB easing, persistent USD weakness driven by trade uncertainty and debt concerns favors the Euro. A technical breakout above 1.1400 reinforces bullish sentiment, offering a compelling opportunity to enter at pullbacks towards 1.1360–1.1380, targeting initial resistance at 1.1500 and subsequently the year-to-date high at 1.1575.GBP/USD (Long, Buy Dips):
Sterling continues to benefit from broad USD selling pressure alongside a relatively stable UK macroeconomic backdrop, despite mixed manufacturing data. With strong technical support near 1.3400, the optimal strategy involves buying dips in the 1.3470–1.3490 range, targeting recent highs at 1.3600, followed by key resistance at 1.3670.USD/CAD (Short):
The Canadian Dollar gains strength from robust GDP data, which boosts the case for a hawkish BoC stance. Coupled with intensifying USD weakness, the pair’s breach of critical support at 1.3700 indicates potential for further declines. Short positions initiated on modest rebounds toward 1.3730–1.3750 present a solid risk-reward setup, with initial targets at 1.3620 (YTD lows) and further down to 1.3550.
These setups reflect a convergence of clear fundamental narratives, strong technical patterns, and attractive risk management potential, providing traders with well-defined opportunities amid heightened market volatility.
For similar High-Conviction GBPUSD Trade Ideas on our forex page.
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