Forex Trade Ideas – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHFMarket backdrop (why conviction is high)Fresh tariff threats, another downgrade-watch on the U.S. fiscal outlook and a third consecutive contraction in ISM-Manufacturing have kept the dollar pinned near six-week lows. At the same time, the week is front-loaded with event-risk that should crystallise policy divergences:Euro-zone CPI (Tue) → ECB cut on Thu – disinflation gives Frankfurt cover to ease again and signal a pause.BoE speakers & U.K. data – point to a “hold” in June, reinforcing sterling’s relative-hawkish appeal.JOLTS → NFP – U.S. labour data could harden the market’s two-cut profile and cap any USD bounce.BoJ (mid-June) – inflation surprises and strong demand at long-bond auctions argue the next move is still a hike, leaving USD/JPY rallies fragile.Against that macro backdrop, the following four trades exhibit the cleanest blend of policy divergence, sentiment bias and technically defined levels—each offering ≥2:1 reward-to-risk. PairBiasEntry ZoneStop-LossTarget 1Target 2Key RationaleEUR/USDSELL – limit (waiting)1.1440 – 1.1455 (reverse-trend line / 61.8 % swing)1.1510 (above Apr & Jun highs)1.1310 (30-May low)1.1220 (20-DMA / channel base)CPI expected to cool, ECB cut on Thu; 1.1450 cap has rejected bulls since mid-April; USD pain already priced – prefer fading into range.GBP/USDBUY—— risk-free: trail SL 1.34701.3470 (just under 20-EMA)1.3597 (Jul-23 trend-line)1.3670 (weekly R1)Sterling bid on BoE pause talk & UK macro beats; USD soft on tariffs & deficit. Three-year breakout still brewing.USD/CHFSELL—— add on any bounce 0.8235-0.82600.8347 (29-May spike)0.8130 (lower BB)0.8040 (YTD low)Price capped beneath 100-day EMA; risk aversion + SNB rhetoric keep CHF firm; bearish momentum intact below 0.8200.USD/JPYSELL – limit (waiting)143.00 – 143.30 (broken 200-h SMA retest)144.40 (supply zone)142.00 (round / Fib 38 %)140.60 (YTD channel floor)BoJ tightening risk vs. Fed cuts; JGB auction demand strong; geopolitical tension underpins JPY; technical failure above 143.6. Quick summaryMacro backdrop: USD stays vulnerable while tariffs, soft ISM & fiscal fears linger; Euro focus flips to today’s CPI & Thursday’s ECB cut; BoE seen pausing further easing; BoJ normalization and safe-haven flows buttress JPY; CHF remains bid beneath 0.8200.Technical landscape: Most majors are coiled near well-defined range edges – ideal for tight-risk, fade-the-extreme trades that still clear a 2:1 hurdle.New addition: Short USD/CAD, betting on CAD strength into Wednesday’s BoC after blow-out Q1 GDP and oil support.Management: GBP/USD long now risk-free; move stops to 1.3470 and let it ride. For open shorts (USD/CHF) start shaving risk if 0.8130 prints. All levels reassess after Eurozone CPI and US JOLTS this session. Pair & BiasWhy we like it now (30-second pitch)Trigger/Levels1EUR/USD – Fade strength (sell)1.1450 has repelled every topside test since mid-April. Headline & core CPI are expected to slip back to the ECB’s comfort zone just 48 hrs before a widely telegraphed rate cut—while USD shorts are already crowded. A pop into resistance is an opportunity to reload short with clear invalidation above the April high.Enter 1.1440-1.1455 → SL 1.1510 → TP1 1.1310, TP2 1.12202GBP/USD – Stay long / add on dipsSterling holds a three-year breakout while the BoE is likely to skip June cuts; IMF, retail-sales and housing data all reinforce the U.K.’s out-performance narrative. Tariff-weary USD flow keeps the wind at the pair’s back.Running long from 1.3485, risk-free. Look to add on any pull-back to 1.3470-1.3490 → targets 1.3597 then 1.36703USD/CHF – Re-engage shortPrice remains bottled up below the 100-day EMA and the key 0.8200 handle. Swiss inflation is flirting with negative prints, but the SNB continues to lean against CHF weakness; risk-off flow and the dollar deficit story both point south.Active short 0.8210, add 0.8235-0.8260 → SL 0.8347 → TP1 0.8130, TP2 0.80404USD/JPY – Sell bounceBoJ normalisation risk + safe-haven bids collide with Fed-cut expectations. A failed break of 143.65/200-h SMA turned that zone into resistance; any drift back into 143.0-143.3 is attractive to fade.Limit 143.0-143.3 → SL 144.40 → TP1 142.00, TP2 140.60 For similar High-Conviction GBPUSD Trade Ideas on our forex page.Please visit our Disclaimer page.DisclaimerInformation on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. 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