FX Analysis 6th June
Markets head into the June 2025 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release on edge, with the U.S. Dollar recovering from six-week lows amid a mix of dovish Fed expectations, soft labor data, and resurgent global risk sentiment. Despite a pre-NFP short squeeze lifting DXY back toward 99.00, conviction remains skewed toward USD softness if job creation undershoots already lowered expectations. Meanwhile, major FX pairs are being shaped by divergent central bank paths (ECB, BoJ, BoC), shifting trade war headlines, and tactical technical levels. With risk appetite supported by improved U.S.-China dialogue and commodity-linked currencies holding firm, today’s NFP could prove pivotal for whether recent trends extend or reverse.
| Pair | Bias & Trigger (valid today only) | Entry Zone | Stop | Target | Core Rationale |
| USD/JPY | SHORT – fade 143.95-144.25 | 143.95-144.25 | 144.60 | 142.50 / 142.10 | Japan data soft, but BoJ-hike bets + rectangle resistance at 144.00. If NFP misses, USD leg weakens; risk-on flows already priced. |
| GBP/USD | LONG – buy dips toward 1.3550 | 1.3560-1.3575 | 1.3495 | 1.3680 / 1.3720 | Cable riding tariff reprieve + UK risk-on mood; USD softness persists unless NFP upside shock. Trend support = 9-day EMA ≈1.3550. |
| EUR/USD | LONG – add on pullback to 1.1390 | 1.1390-1.1410 | 1.1350 | 1.1500 / 1.1530 | Lagarde hints at pause; euro dip bought. A weak payroll print could finally crack 1.1500 resistance; downside contained above 1.1350. |
| AUD/USD | LONG – hold above 0.6500 breakout | 0.6505-0.6515 | 0.6475 | 0.6580 / 0.6620 | Cleared multi-week cap; China PMI + risk-on tone outweigh soft OZ trade data. Only a hot NFP threatens to drag back under 0.6500. |
| USD/CAD | SHORT – sell rallies to 1.3680 | 1.3670-1.3680 | 1.3725 | 1.3580 / 1.3520 | BoC on hold, Kozicki survey signals weak demand; WTI firm. Dual jobs release: baseline sees CAD out-perform unless US print > 150k. |
| NZD/USD | LONG – buy support at 0.6000-0.6020 | 0.6010-0.6020 | 0.5970 | 0.6090 / 0.6120 | Kiwi still in rising channel; carry bid intact. RBNZ in pause mode, USD macro headwinds dominate unless NFP beats decisively. |
FX Analysis 6th June Summary:
The updated FX trade setups remain aligned with a broadly USD-bearish narrative—conditioned on a soft or inline NFP print. USD/JPY and USD/CAD remain high-conviction shorts on technical exhaustion and policy divergence, while EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD setups continue to favor buying dips within bullish structures. GBP/USD retains its bullish stance amid tariff relief and risk-on U.K. flows, with support at 1.3550 likely to attract renewed buying. Across all pairs, tactical entry zones have been adjusted to reflect today’s USD bounce, while stop-loss levels and multi-tiered targets maintain strong reward-to-risk profiles. NFP remains the catalyst for confirmation or invalidation.
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