FX Trade Setup Dashboard – April 14
This report presents potential FX trade setups based on the latest macroeconomic developments, central bank policy divergence, technical levels, and real-time geopolitical risks. Each trade includes entry zones, stops, and targets—ranked by confidence and driven by catalysts like US-China trade tensions, BoJ-Fed policy divergence, and USD dynamics. Use this as a tactical guide in fast-moving FX markets.
Based on the latest macro and technical developments — especially JPY strength driven by safe-haven flows, BoJ-Fed divergence, and escalating US-China trade war tensions — here are the updated FX trade setups ranked by confidence:
1. USD/JPY – Short Setup (High Confidence)
| Parameter | Level/Target |
|---|---|
| Entry | 143.50 – 144.00 (ideal retracement zone) |
| Stop Loss | 145.25 |
| Target 1 | 142.00 |
| Target 2 | 140.30 |
| Target 3 | 139.90 (full extension if panic selling) |
Rationale:
-
JPY strength backed by safe-haven demand (US-China tariff war escalation).
-
BoJ seen hiking further amid 4.2% wholesale inflation + wage gains; Fed seen cutting ~90bps in 2025.
-
Technical break below 142.00 exposes 140.00 region.
-
Sentiment and fundamentals align — this is the clearest directional macro/technical setup.
2. EUR/JPY – Range Short Bias (Moderate Confidence)
| Parameter | Level/Target |
|---|---|
| Entry | 163.20 – 163.80 (supply zone) |
| Stop Loss | 164.65 |
| Target 1 | 161.50 |
| Target 2 | 160.00 |
Rationale:
-
Euro supported by improved risk mood and ECB’s cautious tone, but capped by strong JPY.
-
Trump’s milder tariff tone provides Euro stability, but JPY remains fundamentally stronger.
-
Range-bound chop expected unless JPY rallies sharply or EU data surprises.
-
Clean fade of overextension toward recent highs in cross-pair.
3. GBP/USD – Short-Term Tactical Long (Low-to-Moderate Confidence)
| Parameter | Level/Target |
|---|---|
| Entry | 1.3110 – 1.3130 |
| Stop Loss | 1.3040 |
| Target 1 | 1.3190 |
| Target 2 | 1.3270 (if USD weakness accelerates) |
Rationale:
-
GBP boosted by USD weakness, but UK inflation data midweek poses a downside risk.
-
BoE still leaning dovish; this is more of a tactical USD fade play than a GBP long.
-
Less favorable macro tailwinds than JPY-related pairs.
FX Trade Setups – April 14
| Pair | Bias | Entry Zone | Stop Loss | Target 1 | Target 2 | Target 3 | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY |  Short |
143.50 – 144.00 | 145.25 | 142.00 | 140.30 | 139.90 |  High |
BoJ-Fed divergence + safe-haven JPY demand + US-China tariff risk |
| EUR/JPY | Short Bias |
163.20 – 163.80 | 164.65 | 161.50 | 160.00 | — | Medium |
JPY strength vs ECB caution; fading supply zone in range |
| GBP/USD |  Long (Tactical) |
1.3110 – 1.3130 | 1.3040 | 1.3190 | 1.3270 | — | Low-Med |
USD weakness play; BoE dovish risks; short-term oversold GBP |
Conclusion
Markets remain highly sensitive to evolving macro risks, central bank expectations, and geopolitical headlines—especially surrounding US-China trade dynamics and USD yield repricing. These trade setups are calibrated for current momentum but will be actively updated as conditions shift. Maintain tight risk management and stay nimble, especially around key data releases and policy commentary. Watch for potential sharp reversals as sentiment flips between risk-on and risk-off.
Please see our forex page for more news & analysis. Also, recent USD/MXN trade setup.
