GBPUSD Trade Idea – 15/9/2025 We are looking at GBP/USD as we go into the week of 15–19 September 2025 with an A+ long bias. This is supported by a clean three-pillar alignment. Fundamentally, the balance of risks tilts against the USD into a Fed easing decision, while the BoE is expected to hold, keeping UK-US rate differentials from moving further against sterling. Sticky UK inflation and resilient services dynamics reduce the odds of an aggressively dovish BoE pivot in the near term. Technically, price has reclaimed the 1.35 handle and is carving a sequence of higher lows, with 1.3550–1.3600 acting as a pivotal supply zone to buy against on dips or to add on a confirmed breakout or retest. Sentiment/positioning is supportive: speculative accounts remain net short GBP, leaving room for a squeeze if macro prints and central bank messaging break in sterling’s favor. The plan is to add on pullbacks into 1.3480–1.3530, and again near 1.3420, and consider a momentum add on a break and hold above 1.3605, with disciplined risk and awareness around event windows. GBPUSD Trade Idea: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK Time) GBP/USD 1.3556 Buy dips 1.3480–1.3530; add 1.3420; optional add on breakout/retest above 1.3605 Daily close < 1.3340 1.3700 / 1.3820 (stretch 1.3950) Fundamentals: FOMC widely expected to cut on Wed as labor weakens -USD minus; BoE seen holding after ECB held last week – supports GBP–USD rate spread. UK CPI expected to peak near ~4% in Sep per BoE/press, limiting BoE dovishness. (Investopedia) Technicals: Range breakout back above 1.35; 1.3550–1.3600 flagged as resistance by multiple desks—use dip buys; holds above MAs per recent technician notes. (DailyForex) Positioning: IMM specs net short GBP (~-33.6k) → room for squeeze; retail not crowded long. (Investing.com Canada) Tue 16 Sep 07:00 UK Labour Market (ONS); Wed 17 Sep 07:00 UK CPI (Aug); Wed 17 Sep 19:00 / 19:30 FOMC & Powell; Thu 18 Sep 12:00 BoE; Fri 19 Sep 07:00 UK Retail Sales. (Office for National Statistics) GBP/USD — Conclusion We think this setup qualifies as A+ (3/3) because the fundamental impulse (Fed easing vs BoE hold), the technical structure (trend resumption above 1.35 with well-defined levels), and positioning (room for short-covering) all point in the same direction. Execute via staged entries as outlined, protect the trade with an invalidation on a daily close below 1.3340, and aim for 1.3700 then 1.3820 (stretch 1.3950) as the week’s upside objectives. Key near-term catalysts (UK time) that can accelerate or challenge the thesis are: Tue 07:00 UK labour market data, Wed 07:00 UK CPI and 19:00/19:30 FOMC + Powell, Thu 12:00 BoE Fri 07:00 UK retail sales. A hawkish Fed surprise, a soft UK CPI that drags BoE expectations lower, or a sharp risk-off surge in US yields would weaken the case; absent that, the path of least resistance remains higher with buy-the-dip tactics favored. For similar Forex Trade Setups please visit our forex trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. GBPUSD Trade Setup – 15.9.2025 TerraBullMarkets...
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