Sterling enters the new week on the defensive, with GBP/USD consolidating near 1.31 after a subdued performance through the late-Asian and early-European sessions. The pair continues to trade under a heavy macro cloud following the Bank of England’s dovish hold at 4.00%, where a narrow 5 – 4 vote revealed rising internal pressure for rate cuts. Market-implied pricing now reflects a strong probability of an initial 25 bp cut in December, pulling rate differentials sharply against the pound as U.S. data resilience sustains Fed patience. From a technical perspective, the structure remains decisively bearish. Repeated failures around 1.3165 – 1.3210 underscore a well-defined supply zone, with lower highs and fading momentum confirming a corrective bear phase within the broader dollar trend. Our setup favors selling rallies, targeting a move back toward 1.2980 and potentially 1.2890, as macro divergence and positioning both reinforce downside bias into next week’s high-impact catalysts, including UK labor data (11 Nov) and U.S. CPI (13 Nov). GBPUSD Trade Setup: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) GBP/USD 1.3119 SELL into strength 1.3165 – 1.3210 (add 1.3260) Invalidation daily close >1.3320 1.2980 – 1.2890; stretch 1.2790 Fundamentals: BoE held at 4% in a knife-edge 5 – 4 with four voting to cut; guidance leans dovish and markets now price elevated odds of a December cut, policy divergence vs. the US favors downside. (Reuters) Technicals: Lower-highs since 1.3300; 1.3165 / 1.3210 is supply from prior breakdown; 1.2980 is first target (August swing area). Sentiment: Pre-budget/BoE turbulence priced via options; topside stop clusters likely above 1.3300, but consensus leans to sell-rallies on weak UK macro pulse. Today – 7th Nov: US NFP 13:30. Tue – 11th Nov: UK Labor market 02:00. Thu – 13 Nov: US CPI 13:30. Chart by TradingView – GBPUSD Trade Setup Conclusion The policy divergence between a data-dependent Fed and a BoE pivoting toward accommodation forms a clear fundamental anchor for sterling weakness. Technically, GBP/USD’s failure to reclaim the 1.3200 handle and the persistence of a descending structure favor continuation lower. On the sentiment side, options flow and dealer positioning indicate renewed demand for downside protection into year-end, suggesting institutional bias remains bearish. Unless U.S. data surprises sharply to the downside, GBP/USD rallies into the 1.3165 – 1.3210 zone are likely to be sold into aggressively, with short-term targets at 1.2980 and 1.2890. Only a daily close above 1.3320 would invalidate this setup. For now, the path of least resistance is lower, as the pound’s macro tone softens and the dollar reasserts dominance heading into a critical week for global inflation data. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk; manage exposure accordingly. For similar FX Trade Setups please visit our FX Trade Ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...
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