GBPUSD Trade Setup – Update Following BoE

GBPUSD Trade Setup – Update Following BoE – 18/9/2025 After a largish downtick into the U.S. open, trading at -0.52% – 1.3554 at time of writing, price has rotated back into our buy-the-dip zone without breaking structure. The BoE’s hold with slower QT keeps the domestic backdrop supportive on the margin, while the Fed’s easing path remains a medium-term USD headwind, even if intraday dollar firmness created the pullback. Technically, the pair continues to defend the 1.35 – 1.36 pivot (former resistance turned support), and positioning remains favorable: GBP isn’t a crowded long and retail traders typically lean short into strength, leaving room for short squeezes. Against that backdrop, our A+ plan does not change—it’s simply offering better risk-reward. What changed BoE held Bank Rate at 4% and slowed QT to £70bn over the next 12 months, tilting sales away from long-dated gilts. The tone was cautious on cutting given inflation still 3.8%. Vote 7–2 (two wanted a cut). Net: not a dovish shock; QT slowdown reduces gilt-market pressure and is modestly GBP-supportive. Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+  Near-term catalysts (UK time) GBP/USD Buy dips 1.3555  –1.3610; scale in tranches. Add on confirmed break/hold > 1.3700 (1H/4H close). Daily close < 1.3490 (loss of BoE-day base & higher-low). During events, use hard stops just beyond structure. 1.3725 / 1.3820; stretch 1.3950 if USD softens on data/PMIs. Fundamentals: BoE held and slowed QT, easing gilt pressure and signaling no rush to cut; Fed’s easing path remains a medium-term USD headwind, supportive of GBP vs USD. Technicals: Reclaimed/defended the 1.35 – 1.36 pivot; constructive 20/50 – DMA slope; pullback to support improves R:R. Sentiment/positioning: GBP not a crowded long; retail typically short into strength, leaving squeeze potential. Fri 07:00 UK Retail Sales Mon 23 Sep 09:30 UK flash PMIs Mon 23 Sep AM Eurozone flash PMIs (spillover).   Chart by Trading View – GBPUSD Trade Setup GBPUSD Trade Setup –  Update post-BoE Bias & entries: Buy dips 1.3555 – 1.3610; add on clean break/hold >1.3700 (1H/4H close). Stop / invalidation: Daily close <1.3490 (below higher-low structure & BoE day’s low). Targets: 1.3725 / 1.3820 (stretch 1.3950 if USD softens into data/PMIs). Why still A+: Fundamentals: Fed easing path intact; BoE not racing to cut and easing QT pressure supports GBP on the margin. Technicals: Reclaim and repeated defense of the 1.36 pivot keeps the uptrend channel valid; 1.3700 remains the trigger for momentum continuation. (Overnight wobble didn’t break structure.) Sentiment/positioning: GBP is not a crowded long; retail tends to lean short on strength—both allow upside squeezes. (As before; unchanged in direction.) Near-term catalysts (UK time): Fri 07:00 UK Retail Sales; Fri pre-dawn BoJ (USD leg spillover); Mon 23 Sep UK & Eurozone flash PMIs. Use smaller size into these, add on confirmation. Bottom line: Keep the A+ buy-the-dip stance. The BoE’s mix (hold + slower QT, no rush to cut) does not invalidate the long; it slightly improves the GBP side by reducing gilt-market stress. Only flip the view if price closes below 1.3490 or if incoming data (e.g., Retail Sales/PMIs) materially shift the growth/inflation mix against GBP. Bias & entries: Buy dips 1.3555–1.3610; add on confirmed break/hold > 1.3700 (1H/4H close). Stop / invalidation: Daily close < 1.3490 (beneath the higher-low and BoE day’s base). Targets: 1.3725 / 1.3820; stretch 1.3950 if USD softens into data/PMIs. Conclusion Treat the U.S.-open fade as an opportunity, not a signal change: fundamentals (BoE steady, Fed easing path), technicals (defended 1.35 – 1.36), and sentiment (not crowded long) still line up for an A+ long-on-dips. Execute with staggered entries inside 1.3555 – 1.3610, hard stops intraday just beyond structure, and convert to a close-based invalidation < 1.3490 once volatility normalizes. Take partials near 1.3725, trail on 4H swing lows into 1.3820, and only stand down if (a) we get a decisive daily close below 1.3490, or (b) incoming data (UK Retail Sales, flash PMIs, or a hawkish USD surprise) materially flips the macro mix. Absent that, the path of least resistance remains higher, and today’s dip improves the risk-reward to express it. For similar Forex Trade Setups please visit our forex trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.   TerraBullMarkets...