Gold Trade Setup – 10.7.25

Gold Trade Setup – 10.7.25 As of Tue, 07 Oct 2025, 06:50 UK time, spot gold sits near 3963, hovering towards the round-number magnet at 4000 after a controlled grind higher. The A+ case (3/3) is intact: Fundamentals: softening growth impulses and easier policy expectations keep real yields contained while central-bank buying and steady ETF interest provide a durable bid. Technicals: a strong weekly up-trend with a tight higher-low structure; the 3955 – 3945 shelf and 3925 – 3915 breakout base are the most attractive pullback zones. Sentiment & Positioning: futures visibility is limited, so we anchor to flows and price leadership, both favour dips being bought into event risk. Our Plan: go long between 3955 – 3945, looking to add 3925 – 3915, and only add momentum on a clean hold above 4000, avoid chasing wicks. Risk is defined by a daily close below 3888. Initial targets: 4000 – 4040 – 4090. Gold Trade Setup: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) Gold Long-on-dip / momentum add • Buy 3955 – 3945 (micro shelf) Add 3925 – 3915 (breakout base)  Momentum add on clean break >4000 (don’t chase wicks; use trailing). <3888 daily close (below base/stop pocket). 4000 – 4040 – 4090. Fundamentals: Fresh ATHs on shutdown & aggressive Fed-cut pricing; central-bank demand and ETF holdings supportive (SPDR holdings highest since 2022). Technicals: Weekly uptrend / ATH expansion; round-number magnet at 4000. Sentiment: CoT paused during the shutdown, so we lean on ETF / flow proxies; price leadership confirms dip-buying. Stops/liq: obvious liquidity above 4000 and below 3890. Wed 8 Oct 19:00 –  FOMC Minutes (Sept)  Ongoing US shutdown headlines  USD / yields swings. CPI for Sep due Wed 15 Oct 13:30 (UK) (Minutes timing via FXStreet/FED calendar; CPI via BLS. Chart by TradingView – Gold Trade Setup – 10.7.25   Conclusion We’ll look to scale in on dips, keep the hard invalidation at a daily close below 3888, and use a tight trailing stop on any confirmed >4000 break to capture extension without giving back a blow-off. Position size is tapered into scheduled risk, most notably the FOMC Minutes, Wed 19:00 UK; if those minutes skew hawkish or USD/real yields jump, we’ll trim into the print and re-add only if price reclaims the breakout zones on closing basis. A decisive failure below 3888, accelerating ETF outflows, or a sharp rise in real yields would neutralise the long. Absent those signals, the path of least resistance remains higher, with 4040 as the first measured leg and 4090 the stretch if momentum broadens after a firm New York close above 4000. For similar Commodities Trade Ideas please visit our commodities trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.           TerraBullMarkets...