Gold Trade Setup – 20th Oct

Gold remains our highest-conviction long for the week, with a buy-the-dip bias and a breakout add if momentum confirms. Fundamentals: The mix, with softening real yields, persistent central-bank demand, and ongoing hedging needs, continues to underpin the uptrend, while recent Asia-session price action shows firm dip-buying interest in the 4,200 – 4,250 zone. Technicals: The breadth and structure favor continuation: higher highs/lows on the daily, clean demand below, and a clear intraday trigger above the 4,310 area. Sentiment: Dealer positioning point to stop clusters below 4,200 and above 4,300, which can amplify directional moves once engaged. With a heavy macro calendar ahead (inflation prints and PMIs), gold offers asymmetric upside if data lean growth-scare or disinflationary, and resilient downside if risk sentiment wobbles. Gold Trade Setup: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) GOLD   LONG on-the-dip / add on breakout. Primary: buy 4230 – 4210; add 4185 – 4170 if flushed. Secondary: momentum add on >4310 (30-min close). 4148 hard stop on dip plan (below last major impulse base/round-number shelf). For breakout plan, invalidate on <4285 after trigger. 4325 / 4380, stretch 4440. Fundamentals: Asia session steadied on rate-cut expectations into the Oct 28–29 FOMC and continued safe-haven demand; spot printed $4,253 in Asia while Dec futures firmed, with silver also higher. (Reuters) China Q3 GDP slowed to 4.8% y/y and PBoC left LPR unchanged, a growth/cuts mix that keeps real-yield pressure soft, supportive for gold. Street upgrades (e.g., HSBC) and WGC work point to structural central-bank/ETF demand underpinning the trend after repeated ATHs this month. Technicals: trend up, repeated ATH sweeps; 4200 – 4.2500 is a defended demand zone; 4.31k is the intraday breakout line (Asia high zone was 4250 – 4270). Sentiment: Managed-money longs are elevated but not at extremes (latest available), while CFTC reports have been intermittent during the US gov’t shutdown, tempering “crowded long” risks; ETF inflows referenced by Reuters. Dealer stop pockets likely below 4,200 and above 4,300. Mon 20 Oct (done, Asia): China Q3 GDP 4.8% y/y; PBoC LPR on hold. Wed 22 Oct 07:00: UK CPI (Sept). Fri 24 Oct 13:30: US CPI (Sept) expected despite data delays. (Financial Times) Fri 24 Oct (day): Flash PMIs (UK/EU AM; US mid-PM). Gold Trade Setup – 20th Oct Gold Trade Setup – Conclusion Plan A: Buy 4,230–4,210 (add 4,185 – 4,170 on a quick flush), hard stop 4,148, targeting 4,325 / 4,380, with a stretch to 4,440 if momentum builds. Plan B: Add on strength above 4,310 (30-min close), invalidating on a slip back below 4,285. Take partials at first target, trail behind higher lows, and tighten risk into event risk. Key risk controls: watch USD (DXY), UST real yields, and ETF flow tone, a sharp rise in real yields or USD broad strength would argue for faster de-risking. We’ll be keeping position sizing moderate around data, respect the stop, and let the trend do the heavy lifting if we clear the 4,310 pivot cleanly. For similar Forex Trade Signals please visit our forex trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...