Gold Trade Setup – 21st Oct

At TerraBull Markets, we reserve our A+ (3/3) grades for trade ideas where fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment/positioning align with high conviction, gold currently fits that bill. After printing fresh highs and easing modestly in the Asian session, price is pulling back toward the recent breakout base, an area that historically attracts dip demand when real yields are soft and risk hedging is in play. Macro drivers remain supportive into the week’s marquee data: policy expectations skew toward easier financial conditions, global growth signals are mixed (which typically lifts strategic allocation to bullion), and official-sector/ETF demand continues to underpin dips. On the chart, the market is respecting a classic breakout–retest structure, with well-defined liquidity pockets above round numbers and just beneath the prior base. Flow-wise, dealer positioning and options clustering point to obvious stop pools that can accelerate a move once triggered. Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) GOLD  Two A+ only conditions: (A) Reclaim-and-go long: Buy on a 30 – 60m close back above 4,300 – 4,310, or (B) Deeper-dip long: If price flushes into 4,235 – 4,210 (first major 4h demand below the breakout base), scale in. (A) 4,270 (failed reclaim). (B) 4,188 (loss of 4h structure). (A) 4,360 –  4,420  – 4,500. (B) 4,300 – 4,360 –  4,420. Fundamentals: Pullback driven by firmer USD + profit-taking, not a thesis break; medium-term still supported by expected Fed easing and ongoing official/ETF demand. Technicals: Europe ran obvious liquidity below 4,300/4,285; A+ odds return only on (A) a bullish reclaim of that base (classic failed-breakdown), or (B) a first test of the next demand (4,235 – 4,210). Sentiment: Narrative intact—central-bank buying/ETF inflows remain supportive; stop pools now sit below 4,250/4,230 and above 4,330/4,360/4,400 (round-number clusters). (Reuters) Today: 10:00–12:00 assorted ECB/Fed speakers (headline risk). 13:30 Canada CPI (USD/pos-beta). 21:30 API crude (cross-asset risk). Fri 24 Oct: US CPI & US Flash PMIs, key for real-rate path. Gold Trade Setup – 21st Oct: Chart by TradingView – Gold Trade Setup – 21st Oct Conclusion After a sharp European-morning flush to 4,265 on dollar strength and profit-taking, our A+ (3/3) bullish thesis remains intact but conditional. We will only engage if one of the following high-probability triggers fires: Playbook A – Reclaim & Go:Go long only on a 30 – 60 min close back above 4,300 – 4,310 (failed-breakdown confirmation).Invalidation: 4,270.Targets: 4,360 – 4,420 – 4,500. Playbook B – First-Test Demand:If price extends lower into 4,235 – 4,210, scale in on the first test of this 4h demand zone.Invalidation: 4,188.Targets: 4,300 – 4,360 – 4,420. We are not recommending shorts: medium-term fundamentals (softening real-rate backdrop, ongoing official/ETF demand) and the broader breakout structure still bias the path higher. If 4,188 fails or real yields/ USD accelerate materially, we will stand aside and reassess. Execution discipline: treat A and B as mutually exclusive, take the first clean trigger and skip the other; size so one stop-out is tolerable; avoid chasing into obvious liquidity pockets unless it’s the planned reclaim. Catalysts to monitor (UK time): ECB/Fed speakers through late morning today, 13:30 Canada CPI (USD/DM beta), 21:30 API crude; Wed 15:30 EIA weekly inventories (risk tone); Fri 13:30 US CPI (delayed) and 14:45 US flash PMIs, key for the real-rate path that ultimately drives gold. 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