Gold Trade Setup – 31st Oct

Gold prices are consolidating near the $4,000 handle early Friday, easing modestly after a strong multi-week advance as the U.S. dollar firms ahead of key inflation data and the FOMC policy statement later today. Overnight, Asian trading held Gold above key structural support around $3,980 – $3,990, suggesting that buyers remain committed to defending the recent breakout zone despite lighter Friday liquidity. From a macro perspective, the metal continues to benefit from an ongoing re-rating in global rate expectations, with markets still anticipating multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026 despite a temporary repricing of near-term easing. Meanwhile, persistent geopolitical risks, resilient physical demand from central banks, and lingering U.S. fiscal concerns continue to underpin Gold’s long-term bullish narrative. Technically, the $4,000 area represents a pivotal battle line, not only a psychological threshold but also a confluence of short-term support and trend alignment across intraday and daily structures. Gold’s ability to hold above this zone into the weekend will be a key test of conviction before next week’s U.S. PCE, ISM, and NFP releases. Gold Trade Setup: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) GOLD (XAU/USD)  LONG: Buy-the-dip 3982 – 3992 (scale in); Alternative: Momentum buy on 4015+ on a 15-min close after data. Dip plan: 3960 (clear break/close below Asia swing fails structure). Breakout plan: 3998 (back inside if breakout fails). 4045 / 4075, stretch 4100 next week if USD softens post-FOMC/NFP. Fundamentals: Still on track for 3rd straight monthly gain; pullback driven by firmer USD as markets temper near-term Fed-cut hopes. ETF flows mixed to negative near-term (GLD outflows this week), but macro bid intact into Fed/NFP/Eurozone inflation. Technicals: 4000 is a round-number magnet; shallow overnight dip held above prior breakout zone; bullish structure unless <3960. Sentiment: Physical demand mixed (India flipped to discount post-festivals), which tempers chasey longs, favoring dip buys over highs. Dealer/liquidity likely clustered around 4000 / 4020 and below 3960 (prior lows/rounds). Today (Fri): 08:45 FR CPI (prel), 11:00 EZ CPI (flash), 12:30 US PCE & income/spending, Sun Nov 2: OPEC+ meeting (oil spillover to USD/inflation), Mon Nov 3: ISM Mfg (15:00), Fri Nov 7: NFP (13:30). Chart by TradingView – Gold Trade Setup – 31st Oct 2025 With macro tailwinds intact and positioning remaining broadly supportive, the bias remains to buy dips toward $3,982 – $3,992, targeting $4,045 – $4,075, with potential extension toward $4,100 into next week if U.S. yields or the dollar ease post-FOMC. The bullish structure remains valid while prices hold above $3,960, which defines the current technical and sentiment floor. Friday’s session will likely feature thinner liquidity and sharper flows around round-number levels, but unless the $3,960 zone is decisively broken, Gold continues to present a high-conviction, A+ (3/3) long setup supported by fundamental resilience, clean technical structure, and constructive sentiment positioning. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk; manage exposure accordingly. For similar Commodities Trade Signals please visit our commodities trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. 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