Gold Trade Setup – 4th Nov

The USD/JPY remains a focal point for global FX traders as shifting U.S. rate expectations, Japanese yield dynamics, and cross-market risk sentiment continue to dictate momentum. Following a volatile October marked by repeated tests above key psychological resistance, the pair now trades within a technically significant consolidation range. With U.S. Treasury yields stabilising near multi-month highs and the Bank of Japan signalling limited appetite for aggressive tightening, policy divergence continues to underpin the dollar. However, signs of slowing U.S. inflation and renewed intervention risk from Tokyo create a tactical environment where positioning and timing are critical. This Gold setup zeroes in on the highest-probability inflection zones, where technical structure, macro data, and sentiment alignment combine to produce an A+  grade directional opportunity. Gold Trade Setup: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) GOLD SHORT – Sell rallies into 4,005 – 4,015; add on failed push above 4,025 that closes back below 4,010 (H1/H4). 4,048 (H4 close) or daily close > 4,040. 3,978, 3,962; stretch 3,940 (liquidity pocket). Fundamentals: Spot has been pinned near the $4,000 pivot as the USD holds 3-month highs, trimming Fed cut odds, a headwind for bullion. Fresh news: China curbed a tax rebate for gold retailers, a marginal demand negative; gold has hovered near 4k since. Technicals: Rejection wicks around 4,010 – 4,030, clean downside equal-lows below 3,980. Dealer/stop zones: Heavy options attention around round handles (4,000 / 4,050), stops likely just beyond. Positioning: Managed-money length elevated vs mid-year (risk of long squeeze on data miss). Wed 5 Nov: 15:00 ISM Services PMI; Fri 7 Nov: 13:30 US NFP. USD tone into both is key. Chart by TradingView – Gold Trade Setup – 4th Nov Conclusion In summary, USD/JPY remains a fundamentally dollar-driven story but is approaching a pivotal phase where both policy expectations and market psychology could shift abruptly. Our trade plan maintains a disciplined bias, grounded in a 3-factor alignment, fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment, while recognising that near-term catalysts such as U.S. ISM and Friday’s NFP carry the potential to redefine rate-spread dynamics. Execution discipline around key resistance and stop zones will be essential as Japanese authorities remain vigilant on yen volatility. With macro drivers, yield spreads, and dealer positioning all reinforcing a high-conviction bias, this USD/JPY setup exemplifies our focus on precision timing and asymmetric risk-reward in major FX pairs. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk; manage exposure accordingly. For similar Commodities Trade Signals please visit our commodities trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...