Gold Trade Setup Analysis – 13.10.25

Gold Trade Setup Analysis – 13.10.25 At the time of writing, Monday 13 Oct 2025, gold trades at 4074.43 (+1.39%), sustaining fresh record highs above the $4,000 polarity level. The bid is underpinned by persistent U.S. / China tariff risk, firm central-bank demand, and rate-cut expectations into a temporary U.S. data vacuum (CPI rescheduled to 24 Oct). With the U.S. bond market holiday thinning liquidity today, price discovery is magnified around round strikes (4,000/4,100). Near-term catalysts that can amplify momentum or produce tactical dips include OPEC’s MOMR (today), Powell at NABE (Tue), China CPI/PPI (Wed), and U.S. PPI (Thu). Against this backdrop, our A+ bias remains buy-the-dip above $4,000, looking to harvest continuation while managing whips around options-heavy levels. Gold Trade Setup: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) Gold LONG on pullbacks into 4048 – 4056 (starter); add 4018 – 4028 on a deeper flush. Optional breakout add >4085 after 30-min acceptance. 3988 hard stop (beneath breakout retest); daily close <3990 would suggest structure invalidation. 4105 / 4135; stretch 4175 if momentum persists. Fundamentals: Record highs sustained by tariff risk, geopolitical ceasefire noise that hasn’t dented haven flows, and rate-cut expectations with CPI delayed, keeps uncertainty elevated. BofA’s $5k 2026 call adds medium-term sponsorship. Technicals: Clean acceptance above $4k; measured move from the 3920 – 4020 base points toward 4120+; intraday dips being bought despite lighter U.S. liquidity today. Sentiment: COT updates paused by the shutdown (so no fresh speculative extremes), while CME options activity remains heavy around the round strikes (4,000/4,100), a typical magnet into events. Dealer stop-zones likely clustered below 4,050 and 4,000, with stop-ins above 4,100 from shorts. Mon 13 Oct: US bond market holiday (thin liquidity). Tue 14 Oct 17:20: Powell @ NABE. Wed 15 Oct 02:30: China CPI/PPI (Sep). Thu 16 Oct 13:30: US PPI (Sep). Fri 24 Oct 13:30: US CPI (Sep) – rescheduled. Notes / execution tips We expect whippy liquidity around 4,050–4,100 as intraday dealers hedge option gamma; fade fast spikes into 4,110–4,130 only if momentum stalls (else ride the squeeze). If we see a close back below 3,990, treat this as a failed breakout and we’ll stand aside until back above 4,015 on volume. Chart by TradingView – Gold Trade Setup Analysis – 13.10.25 Conclusion We will buy pullbacks into 4048–4056 (starter) and 4018–4028 (add), with a hard stop at 3988 or daily close <3990 to invalidate the breakout. If price accepts above 4085 on a 30-minute basis, we allow a breakout add, targeting 4105 / 4135, with a stretch to 4175 if momentum persists. Expect choppy flows near 4,050–4,100 as dealers hedge; size appropriately and avoid chasing parabolic spikes. If the market closes back below the $4k pivot, we stand aside and reassess after Powell and China data. As always, adjust risk dynamically and trail partials once 4105 is achieved. For similar Forex Trade Signals please visit our Commodities trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...