Macro Data Week Ahead – 29 Sep – Fri 3 Oct 2025
Following the Fed’s September cut, markets are now hyper-sensitive to signs that growth is cooling without re-accelerating inflation. The week ahead stacks US housing, regional manufacturing, confidence, ISM Manufacturing & Services, JOLTS, claims, factory orders, and culminates in NFP. All under the cloud of a potential U.S. government shutdown that could delay or disrupt releases. The balance of evidence into quarter-end: manufacturing subdued, services steady, labor loosening, and housing constrained by affordability, even with mortgage rates off their peaks.
Big Picture Setup (why this week matters)
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Fed reaction function: After September’s 25 bp cut, the bar for follow-ups shifts to labor softness and contained inflation. Flash PMIs show growth cooling in September (Composite 53.6 from 54.6), hinting at slower services momentum heading into ISM. Prices-charged cooled in the flash, which helps the “softening without re-heating” narrative.
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USD & rates context (as of Fri, Sep 26): The dollar is firmer week-over-week with markets trimming late-year cut odds; EUR/USD ~1.17, GBP/USD 1.33–1.34, USD/JPY near 150; U.S. 10y 4.17%. Expect direction to hinge on ISM & NFP beats/misses.
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Shutdown risk: A lapse in funding from Oct 1 could delay key data (including NFP) and gum up regulator ops. Should be treated as a volatility wild card and planning risk for Friday’s trades and hedges.
Macro Data Week Ahead:
Monday (Sep 29)
US Pending Home Sales (Aug)
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Why it matters: PHS leads Existing Home Sales by 1–2 months; a firmer August print would hint at a modest autumn turnover pickup after August existing sales slipped just 0.2% to a 4.00m pace amid still-elevated prices. Mortgage rates have eased from 2024 highs but affordability remains tight.
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Our read: With new-home incentives doing the heavy lifting and resale affordability stretched, risks skew to only a mild bounce vs consensus.
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FX lens: A soft PHS print is USD-neutral/slightly negative via lower yields; USD/JPY most sensitive if yields dip.
Dallas Fed Manuf. Index (Sep)
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Why it matters: Texas is a high-beta, energy-heavy hub; the survey captures new orders, employment & price pressures. Beige Book flagged a recent rebound in new orders but mixed hiring. Watch for tariff-related cost commentary.
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Our read: Expect cautious tone: production resilient, but employment & outlook subdued.
Tuesday (Sep 30)
Chicago PMI (Sep)
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Signal value: Good (imperfect) ISM lead. August plunged to 41.5 with broad weakness in new orders, employment and backlogs. Another sub-45 print would create downside risk the Wednesday’s ISM Manufacturing data.
JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
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Why it matters: Openings vs unemployed is a key labor slack gauge. July openings 7.2M with quits rate at 2.0%, consistent with cooler churn. A drop toward 7.0M strengthens the cooling labor narrative into NFP.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep)
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Focus: Present Situation vs Expectations. In August, headline dipped to 97.4; Expectations stayed sub-80 (recession-watch zone). A weaker September would align with softer hiring signals.
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Market angle: Soft CC + weak JOLTS → bullish duration, USD-softer, curve bull-steepening risk.
Wednesday (Oct 1)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
ISM Mfg Employment (Sep)
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Context: August headline 48.7 with new orders back above 50 (51.4) but employment deeply sub-50 (43.8) and prices paid high (63.7), a tricky stagflation-ish mix for the Fed.
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What to watch:
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New Orders sustainment below 50 signals continued softness
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Employment index still below 50 signalling continued labor softness
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Prices Paid easing from 63 – 64 would signal inflation relief
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Trading bias:
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Below 48.5: USD offered, 10y yields down, risk-off helps JPY/CHF.
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>50: USD pops, yields up, USD/JPY may test 150s.
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Thursday (Oct 2)
Japan Consumer Confidence (Sep)
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Why it matters: Household sentiment is a BoJ watchpoint alongside wages & inflation. August ticked to 34.9, still pessimistic; Tokyo CPI held 2.5% y/y in Sep, and services PPI firmed, keeping BoJ tightening risk alive later this year. Stronger confidence would support JPY at the margin into NFP.
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Sep 27)
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Why it matters: Near-term labor momentum read heading into NFP. Watch for an uptick consistent with JOLTS softening.
US Factory Orders (Aug)
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Nowcast cues: Durable goods +2.9% in August (ex-trans +0.4%), but core capex shipments -0.3%, pointing to mixed business spending. A positive headline led by transport is likely; ex-transport is the quality check.
Friday (Oct 3)
US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
Unemployment Rate (Sep)
ISM Services PMI (Sep)
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Context into payrolls: August added just +22k, jobless 4.3%, wages +0.3% m/m; the labor market has downshifted since spring. A shutdown could delay NFP; build contingency tactics.
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Services ISM focus: August new orders 56.0 (solid) but employment 46.5 (weak)—if employment stays sub-50 and business activity softens, services could join manufacturing in a slower growth regime.
Conclusion
Next week is a clean audit of the soft-landing narrative into Q4. Housing should stabilize only at the margin, manufacturing is still below trend, and services’ resilience is increasingly dependent on labor. The sequence – Chicago PMI – JOLTS/Confidence – ISM Manufacturing – Claims/Factory Orders – ISM Services and NFP. All will set the path for yields, the dollar and risk appetite.
The tells are relatively simple: ISM new orders holding near/below 50, employment sub-50 across both ISMs, prices paid easing, JOLTS drifting lower with quits subdued, and a modest NFP that keeps unemployment anchored around 4.3%. That mix argues for a gently softer USD, bid duration, and a topside cap near USD/JPY ~150, unless a decisive upside surprise in ISM or payrolls breaks the range.
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