Next Week in Equities: Earnings and Trump’s Trade Tariffs
After a volatile month, next week could be decisive for U.S. stock markets as a tidal wave of earnings and key macroeconomic releases collide.
Trump’s Tariffs Begin to Bite
The “Liberation Day” tariffs signed by President Trump start to take real economic effect now. Investors will get the first jobs report (NFP) covering the post-tariff period, alongside a flash read of Q1 U.S. GDP growth—where expectations are unusually wide, ranging from a minor expansion to contraction. Any sign of major economic weakening could rattle the major indices, especially cyclicals and small caps.
The “Magnificent Seven” Anchor the Earnings Season
Mega-cap tech will dominate headlines next week, with Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft all set to report. Strong results could mask weakness elsewhere and extend the Nasdaq’s recent outperformance, but any disappointments—especially on guidance—could trigger sharp pullbacks.
Consumer Confidence and Spending in Focus
Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence data and Wednesday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report will test whether U.S. households are starting to crack under higher interest rates and inflation pressures. Strong readings would buoy retailers and consumer discretionary stocks, while weakness could feed into recession fears.
Autos and Industrials at Risk
Tuesday and Thursday will also see heavy reporting from cyclically sensitive names like General Motors, UPS, and Caterpillar. Weak manufacturing PMI readings and sluggish auto sales could weigh on these sectors, highlighting vulnerabilities in the “real economy” side of the market.
Bank of Japan and Global Growth Concerns
Thursday’s BoJ meeting, along with holiday-affected markets globally (May 1st Labor Day), could create pockets of illiquidity. China’s PMIs on Thursday night/Friday morning may also spook investors if they reveal early downside surprises in growth momentum.
Watch for Oil and Financial Sector Earnings
Energy giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron report Friday, and their commentary on demand trends could offer clues about global growth. Financial firms like Visa and Mastercard could also reveal whether consumer spending trends remain resilient post-tariffs.
Next Week in Equities Takeaways:
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Mega-tech earnings will set the tone for Nasdaq.
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U.S. GDP, NFP, and inflation data could reignite recession worries—or squash them.
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Watch cyclicals like autos and industrials for signs of deeper economic cracks.
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Energy and financials earnings could tilt sentiment heading into May.
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