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The A+ Setup Framework

The A+ Setup Framework

Last updated: 12 October 2025.

Our A+ framework is a simple promise: we only publish trade ideas when fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment/flow align. If all three pillars point the same way—and risk is well-defined—it’s an A+ setup. If not, we pass.

TL;DR

  • 3 pillars: Fundamentals • Technicals • Sentiment/Flow

  • Gate: all three must align

  • Risk rules: clear invalidation, minimum reward-to-risk, size by volatility

  • Time relevance: focus on London → early US session catalysts

Pillar 1 — Fundamentals (F)

Goal: Is the macro/policy backdrop pushing the pair in one clear direction now?

What we look at:

  • Rates & policy path: central-bank guidance, yield differentials, terminal rate expectations

  • Data surprises: CPI, labour, PMIs, retail sales, GDP revisions

  • Growth/inflation mix: soft-landing vs stagflation risk; terms of trade where relevant

  • Event map (next 1–7 days): what could confirm or break the thesis

Score F = 1 when: the incoming data/policy expectations clearly favour one currency and near-term events are more likely to reinforce than to reverse.
Score F = 0 when: mixed/transition regime, contradictory data, or binary event risk that could flip the bias.

Pillar 2 — Technicals (T)

Goal: Does price action support the same directional bias across timeframes?

Checklist:

  • Structure: trend/market regime (trend, range, transition) on D1/H4/H1

  • Levels: confluence of S/R, supply/demand, prior swing highs/lows, VWAP/200-DMA context

  • Momentum & volatility: higher highs/lows, RSI/MACD confirming, ATR expanding or compressing appropriately

  • Trigger: a precise entry mechanism (break-retest, pullback to level, inside-day break, failed breakout)

Score T = 1 when: multi-timeframe structure and momentum support the same direction and we have a clean trigger with a logical stop.
Score T = 0 when: choppy/mean-reverting conditions or unclear invalidation.

Pillar 3 — Sentiment & Flow (S)

Goal: Are positioning, options, and risk appetite consistent with our trade?

Inputs:

  • Risk tone: equities/credit/rates signalling risk-on or risk-off; DX/yields inter-market context

  • Positioning: CFTC/prime brokerage notes, stretched vs. neutral positioning

  • Options/vol: 1w–1m implied vol percentile, risk reversals (call-put skew), large expiries/KO levels that may magnetise or repel price

  • Headlines: fresh catalysts that nudge flows in our direction (or trap crowded positions)

Score S = 1 when: flows/positioning don’t fight the trade and near-term options landscape is neutral-to-supportive.
Score S = 0 when: crowded the other way, skew contradicts, or risk tone diverges.

When is a setup “A+”?

  • A+ = 3/3 (F=1, T=1, S=1).

  • Borderline = 2/3. We usually skip unless risk is extremely attractive and event risk low.

  • Reject = 0–1/3.

We publish what we consider our A+ analysis only to avoid idea fatigue and maintain quality.

Pre-Trade Checklist (fast)

  • Bias: F/T/S agree (3/3)

  • Entry: exact level/trigger defined

  • Invalidation: the price or event that proves us wrong

  • Targets: at least two (T1 to de-risk, T2 to harvest trend)

  • R:R: minimum ≥ 2:1 (prefer ≥ 3:1 on trend trades)

  • Calendar: major data/speeches mapped; aware of options expiries/barriers

  • Size: position sized to the stop distance & volatility

Risk & Sizing Rules (how we control downside)

Define risk first; size second.

  1. Stop placement: beyond the invalidating level, not at a random pip count.

  2. Minimum R:R:

    • Trend-continuation: ≥ 2.5–3R preferred

    • Mean-reversion/fade: ≥ 2R and quicker management

  3. Volatility-aware size:

    • Risk per trade = a fixed % of equity (example: 0.5–1.0%)

    • Position size (lots)

      lots = (account_risk $) / (stop_pips × pip_value $/pip)

    • Use recent ATR or realised vol to avoid oversizing in quiet regimes.

  4. De-risking: take partial at T1, move stop to reduce tail risk if structure confirms.

  5. Hard pass conditions: binary events in minutes, liquidity holes (rollover, major holidays), spread blow-outs.

How we publish each setup – The Template

Context (1–2 paragraphs)
What’s driving the pair right now; why the bias makes sense.

Plan

  • Direction: Long/Short PAIR

  • Entry: level/zone or trigger condition

  • Invalidation: price or event that kills the idea

  • Targets: T1 / T2 (/ T3) with rationale

  • Time horizon: intraday / swing (1–3 days) / multi-day (up to 2 weeks)

  • Confidence: A+ (3/3)

  • Catalyst map: upcoming prints/speeches; options expiries/KO levels to watch

What changes our mind
The specific price action or data outcome that flips the bias.

Notes
Positioning, vol context, correlations worth watching.

You can copy this template into each article for consistency.

Example (hypothetical)

Pair: USD/JPY
Bias: Long — A+ (F=1, T=1, S=1)

  • F: BoJ guidance remains cautious; US data resilient → widening yield differential supports USD. No near-term Japanese data likely to reverse that in the next 48–72h.

  • T: D1 uptrend intact; H4 bull flag above prior breakout 152.30; H1 shows higher lows. Trigger = clean break-retest of 153.00 with momentum.

  • S: Risk tone neutral-to-positive; 1w risk reversals favour USD calls; chunky 153.50 expiry supports a grind higher rather than sharp reversal.

Plan:

  • Entry: 153.05–153.15 after break-retest holds (H1 close)

  • Invalidation: sustained H1 close back below 152.40 (failed breakout)

  • Targets: T1 153.80 (de-risk), T2 154.60

  • R:R: ~3.1R to T2 on 40–50 pip stop

  • Horizon: 1–3 days

  • What flips it: surprise BoJ commentary signalling earlier tightening; equities risk-off shock dragging yields lower and USD soft.

(Numbers are illustrative for the framework.)

FAQ

Why insist on 3/3?
Because edge comes from confluence. One-pillar trades rely on hope; three-pillar trades rely on alignment.

What if a setup is great but event risk is minutes away?
We wait. If the thesis is right, there’s almost always a safer entry after the event reprices the market.

Do you ever average down?
No. We pre-define our invalidation and respect it.

Do you change targets?
We trail if structure strengthens, but never move stops wider once in.

Disclosure & Risk Warning

This framework is for educational purposes only and reflects our opinions at the time of writing. It is not investment advice. FX trading carries significant risk; only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always perform your own due diligence. Please visit our Disclosure page for full details.