US CPI & Initial Weekly Claims Preview – 11/9/2025

The August CPI lands on Thu 11 Sep, 13:30 UK (08:30 ET) alongside Initial Jobless Claims, setting the tone for front-end rates and the USD ahead of the Fed blackout. The Street is looking for Core CPI +0.3% MoM (3.1% YoY) with the CPI index at 323.9. Our base case is the same.

Sticky services (most notably shelter) offset by soft core goods, with travel categories the being the key swing risk. Claims should remain range bound (235–240k), consistent with a gradually cooling but still resilient labor market. Upside core risk (≥0.4%) would push front-end yields and USD higher. A benign 0.2% core plus softer claims would likely bid Treasuries and leave the USD a touch weaker.

Timing & Setup

• CPI (Aug) is scheduled for 08:30 ET on Thu Sep 11 (13:30 UK).

What’s driving the calls:

Energy / headline optics

• EIA weekly shows US regular gasoline averaging $3.15 – $3.19 from late Aug to early Sep; for August CPI the late-month firmness nudges headline higher but is not big enough to force a hot core print.

Core goods

• Used cars: Manheim’s Aug index was unchanged m/m (SA) after a soft mid-month; that usually maps to flat to slightly negative used-car CPI. New-vehicle discounting and softer import prices keep goods disinflation in play.

Shelter

• Forward rent trackers show fresh weakness (Apartment List −0.2% m/m in Aug; y/y −0.9%), which filters into CPI with a lag. Expect rent & OER to decelerate slightly but still add ~0.15–0.20pp to core.

Travel-related services

• July saw a +4.0% pop in airfares; base effects allow partial payback in Aug (even a flat print helps keep core at 0.3%). Hotels have been easing on a trend basis. U.S. Travel Association

Medical & other services

• July’s core lift included medical services; no strong evidence of an August re-acceleration, so assume trend-like contributions. Combined with still-elevated ISM prices paid readings (manufacturing 63.7, services ~69) the services disinflation remains slow, not linear.

Macro context / “why not higher?”

• July CPI was 0.2% headline / 0.3% core, with core y/y = 3.1%; consensus into August is for sticky 3% inflation, echoed by mainstream previews. My base case preserves that profile.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended Sep 6)

• Latest print was 237k; trend is range-bound, with insured unemployment ~1.94 – 1.95m creeping up vs early-year levels. We pencil in 237k (street 235k; your 240k). A surprise ≥245k would firm the “gradual cooling” labor narrative into next week’s Fed.

What would move markets

• Hawkish inflation surprise: Core ≥0.4% m/m or CPI-U index ≥324.1 → front-end USTs up, USD firmer (watch USD/JPY topside).
• Benign print: Core 0.2%, CPI-U ≤323.8, and claims ≥240k → front-end yields down, USD a bit heavier, mild risk-on.
• Mixed (sticky prices + softer labor): Core 0.3% with claims ≥245k → curve bull-steepens; USD reaction mixed (yields ↓ vs. inflation sticky).

Receipts / references

• CPI schedule & prior index level (Jul NSA 323.048): BLS CPI site & July release.
• Consensus colour: Morningstar preview (CPI +0.3% m/m, sticky inflation narrative).
• Gasoline trend: EIA weekly gasoline update.
• Used-car pipeline: Manheim Aug (flat m/m SA); mid-Aug soft.
• Rents leading indicators: Apartment List Aug report.
• ISM prices paid (cost pressure still elevated): ISM mfg prices 63.7; services prices near high-60s.
• Claims backdrop & last print: Investing/TE trackers.

Latest CPI/Inflation coverage (useful pre‑read)

Bottom line: We stand with consensus—core 0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y; CPI-U ~323.9—with the main risk a softer outcome if airfares/hotels retrace more and used-car CPI dips. Claims should stay range-bound around ~237k.

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