US JOLTs Job Openings Preview – 30.9.25

On Tuesday, 30 September 2025 at 15:00 UK (10:00 ET), the BLS releases August JOLTS, one of the cleanest reads on underlying U.S. labor demand and an input the Fed watches for confirmation that the jobs market is re-balancing without undue stress.

July openings printed 7.181M, with quits steady at 2.0%, leaving roughly one unemployed worker per vacancy, far cooler than 2022’s extremes but still tight by historical standards.

For August, our base case is a modest downside versus the 7.1M consensus, with a point estimate around 7.0 – 7.05M. That call leans on softer small-business hiring intentions, continued normalization in online postings, and broader sentiment indicators that suggest incremental cooling rather than cliff-edge weakening.

Key internals to focus on are the quits rate (2.0%), any revision pattern to summer data, and the industry mix of openings, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors.

US JOLTs Job Openings – Our Call

• Our Bias: Mild downside vs. consensus.

• Point estimate: 7.0–7.05M (consensus/“street” 7.1M).

• What moves the needle: The small-business signal and postings data both softened into August, arguing for another small leg lower in openings; claims improved late in September but are contemporaneous rather than August-month signals.

Why a touch below 7.1M

1) What July JOLTs Job Openings told us (baseline):
Openings were 7.181M in July (10-month low), quits stuck at 2.0%, and hires/separations flat at 5.3M. That left 1.0 unemployed per opening in July, a big reset from 2022’s extreme tightness. This is the starting point heading into August.

2) August small-business labor demand softened further:
NFIB’s August survey shows “job openings hard to fill” down to 32%, the lowest since July 2020, and “plans to increase employment” only 15% (still historically subdued). NFIB tends to lead JOLTS for smaller firms’ demand; this points to incrementally fewer posted openings in August.

3) Job postings data: still easing into late August/September:
Indeed’s postings index sat 3–4% above the pre-pandemic baseline by mid-/late-September (103.6 on Sep 19) after months of drift lower—consistent with muted demand versus 2021–23 and compatible with flat-to-down JOLTs Job Openings in August. (Indeed is higher-frequency and tends to track the direction of JOLTs with a lag.)

4) Demand-side macro corroboration:

• Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) fell in August; the share saying “jobs are hard to get” rose to 20%, the highest since early 2021, flagging cooling demand.

• Challenger job-cut announcements rose to 86k in August (+39% m/m), suggesting some employers trimmed demand. (Announcements aren’t one-for-one with actual separations, but they color the backdrop.)

5) Labor-slack arithmetic for August:
The August jobs report showed unemployment at 4.3% (7.384M unemployed). If openings print 7.0–7.1M, the unemployed-per-opening ratio ticks up to roughly 1.04–1.06, from 1.00 in July, another small step toward a more balanced market.

6) Counter-signal (keeps the downside modest):
Initial jobless claims fell into late September (218k wk of Sep 20), implying layoffs remain contained. That argues against a sharp collapse in openings and supports my modest downside vs. consensus rather than a big miss.

What We’ll watch inside the report

• Quits rate: Likely to hold near 2.0%; a drop toward 1.9% would reinforce waning worker confidence and reduced churn.

• Industry mix: July saw openings fall in health care & social assistance and arts/entertainment, with retail/transportation mixed; NFIB detail shows construction, manufacturing, transportation still reporting the highest shares with openings but well below a year ago, scope for further normalization there.

• Revisions: June/July were revised in the last release; another downward tweak would be thematically consistent with the broad BLS pattern of softer labor data this summer.

Market take – FX Context

• Our Base case (7.0 – 7.05M, quits 2.0%): Reinforces a gradual-cooling narrative. Expect a slight bull steepening in USTs and a marginally softer USD if rates-cut odds inch up at the margin (especially with the Fed already pivoting to employment risks).

• Downside surprise (<6.9M or quits <1.9%): Bigger risk-off in yields, USD offered vs. low-beta FX (EUR, CHF) as the market leans into additional Fed easing.

• Upside surprise (>7.2M or quits >2.1%): Re-tightening narrative; front-end yields pop, USD firmer (JPY and precious metals most sensitive).

Conclusion

Netting the signals, we expect gradual cooling in August JOLTS: openings near 7.0–7.05M (just under the 7.1M consensus), quits holding near 2.0%, and the unemployed-per-opening ratio nudging a touch higher from July’s 1.0. That outcome would reinforce a soft-landing narrative and be supportive of a slight bull-steepening in Treasuries and a marginally softer USD at the margin, while leaving room for asymmetric reactions if internals surprise.

A bigger downside miss (<6.9M or quits <1.9%) would sharpen easing expectations and weigh more noticeably on the dollar; an upside surprise (>7.2M or quits >2.1%) would re-tighten the labor-demand story and lift the front end and USD. Heading into the print, treat the report as a fine-tuning data point for the Fed’s employment-risk pivot, with outsized market impact most likely driven by quits, revisions, and sector detail rather than the headline alone.

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