US Oil WTI Trade Setup – 10.6.25

US Oil WTI Trade Setup – 10.6.25 US Oil WTI trades near 60.28 Friday 3rd October after a soft week, ending down -1.34%. Our base case for the coming week is to sell strength into former support turned resistance within a still-intact weekly downtrend. The technical map is clean: first supply at 61.50 – 62.20 (role-reversal), with a secondary stop-hunt band between 62.80- 63.10. The macro tone remains demand-fragile and headline-sensitive; inventory dynamics and growth signals have not yet argued for a sustained crude rebound. This backdrop, combined with clear technical levels overhead, offers attractive, asymmetric risk: reward shorting to 58.50, 56.80 & 55.50 against a tight invalidation above 63.30. US Oil WTI Trade Setup: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) US Oil   We’ll be looking to Short rallies within the downtrend between 61.50 – 62.20. Looking for broken support / role-reversal.  Invalidate >63.30 – A close back above weekly supply / headline squeeze risk. T1:58.50  T2:56.80  T3:55.50 Fundamentals: OPEC+ JMMC (Oct 1) stressed compliance; eight-nation OPEC+ meeting today (Sun) to review output, tone has shifted toward easing prior cuts/increasing quotas; plus persistent Red Sea disruptions reshape fuel oil demand but haven’t lifted crude sustainably; macro growth signals softened (ISM Services fell to 50.0). US inventories & STEO update may reinforce weak demand narrative. Technicals: Trend lower on weekly; rallies to low-62s have been sold; providing favorable risk reward shorting failed retests. Sentiment: CoT blackout; watch API/EIA for confirmation. Geopolitical headline risk (Iran/Houthi) argues for tight invalidation. Sun 5 Oct: OPEC+ 8 country meeting (headline risk) Tue 7 Oct 21:30 – API crude stocks EIA Short Term Energy Outlook: – Macro Balances. Wed 8 Oct 15:30 – EIA crude & products  Wed 8 Oct 19:00: FOMC Minutes  Chart by TradingView – US Oil WTI Trade Setup – 10.6.2025 Conclusion We will look to fade (short) rallies into 61.50 – 62.20, adding on a final push toward 62.80 – 63.10, with a hard stop above 63.30 to respect potential headline squeezes. Targets remain 58.50 / 56.80 / 55.50, taken in stages. We consider this an A+ setup given the fundamentals (sluggish demand signals, inventory vigilance), technicals (clear role-reversal zones and weak weekly structure), and event-driven sentiment (API/EIA stock data, policy headlines) all align. We’ll actively manage around scheduled releases (API Tue 21:30 UK; EIA Wed 15:30 UK; policy headlines mid-week). A decisive recapture and hold above 63.30, especially if accompanied by a genuine supply shock or unexpectedly bullish inventory/forward-balance shift, invalidates the short bias and sends us back to neutral. For similar Commodities Trade Ideas please visit our commodities trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...