US Retail Sales What to Expect – 16/9/2025
U.S. consumers take center stage on Tuesday, 16 September 2025 at 13:30 BST, when the Census Bureau releases the August US Retail Sales report. After July’s solid +0.5% MoM, the street is looking for a slower +0.3%, while our base case is a slightly firmer +0.4%.
The mix matters as much as the headline: higher gasoline prices should lift nominal receipts at the pump, non-store/e-commerce remains resilient into back-to-school, and autos may give back a touch after July’s pop. With the Fed meeting looming, this print will help shape the narrative around the durability of goods demand following a mixed inflation tableau (firm CPI, softer PPI) and could nudge front-end yields and the dollar accordingly.
We can unpack the category-level drivers, map the implications for the control group and Q3 consumption tracking, and lay out market scenarios with actionable setups across EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD heading into the release.
US Retail Sales (MoM)
Our call: +0.4% m/m (vs street +0.3%, prior +0.5%). Mild upside skew (0.4–0.5%).
Reasoning – Hard data & High-Frequency Reads:
- July base was solid: headline +0.5%, with autos +1.6% m/m, non-store +0.8%, gas stations +0.7%, while restaurants dipped −0.4%. That mix matters for how August comps.
- Gasoline tailwind in August: EIA weekly averages nudged up through the month (all-grades $3.25-$3.27-$3.30 late August; then $3.32 on 09/08). This should add a small positive to nominal sales at gas stations.
- Autos likely a small drag vs July: industry trackers point to ~16.0m SAAR in August (down from July’s ~16.4m), so dealer receipts probably flat-to-slightly lower after July’s pop.
- Card data points to modest growth: Bank of America’s September “Consumer Checkpoint” shows card spending per household +0.4% m/m (SA) in August (YoY +1.7%). That’s consistent with a modest positive read in goods.
- Retail Monitor (Affinity/NRF) says August rose: ex autos & gas +0.5% m/m SA; their “core” (ex autos, gas, restaurants) +0.26% m/m — points to steady, not hot, underlying goods demand. Ajot+1
- Prices help the nominal print: August CPI had gasoline +1.9% m/m, food at home +0.6%, shelter +0.4%. While retail sales aren’t price-adjusted, higher sticker prices at pumps and groceries lift the nominal headline.
- Services/soft data: ISM Services PMI 52, new orders 56 (expansion) but employment 46.5 (weak). Demand is there, labor softens — not a headwind to goods in August, but it caps exuberance.
Category expectations for August (directional)
- Gas stations: small + (price-led).
- Motor vehicles & parts: flat/− after July’s surge given the lower SAAR.
- Nonstore (e-commerce): + (ongoing strength; some buy-ahead of tariffs/back-to-school).
- Grocery: + nominal (food CPI).
- Restaurants: mild rebound after July’s −0.4% (CPI “food away from home” +0.3% helps nominal).
- Building materials/electronics/furniture: mixed; not central to the headline skew this month.
Why I’m a touch above consensus
- Gas price uptick + e-commerce momentum + back-to-school should just offset a softer auto line, keeping headline around +0.4% rather than +0.3%. The NRF/Affinity and BofA reads both point to positive but not hot spending – exactly a 0.3 – 0.5% style month, with risks tilted to 0.4%.
- Upside (>0.5%): larger auto resilience than industry SAAR implies, or a bigger gas-price pass-through; would clash with the soft labor tone but could happen if promotions pulled demand forward.
- Downside (<0.2%): if August’s auto payback is heavier and non-store cools more than card data suggests.
Control metrics to watch on the release
- Ex-autos: I’d look for +0.4–0.6% (NRF had +0.5% ex autos & gas).
- Control group: +0.3–0.5% (NRF “core” +0.26%; BofA narrative supportive). A stronger control print will lift Q3 goods consumption tracking.
Trading/market context (FX & rates)
- Markets are primed for a Fed cut next Wednesday; a clean beat (≥0.6%) could trim cut-after-path pricing and pop 2y yields/USD (DXY), while a soft miss would do the opposite.
- With CPI hot at +0.4% m/m but PPI soft (−0.1% m/m), a firm retail headline would revive the “consumer still OK” narrative and likely support USD intraday (watch USDJPY topside if yields jump; miss favors EURUSD bounce).
Bottom line
- Base case: Headline US Retail Sales +0.4% m/m (slightly above consensus +0.3%).
- Skew: Mildly to the upside vs street; gas prices and non-store strength offset a softer auto line.
- What moves markets: A strong control group (>+0.5%) would be the cleanest USD-positive surprise; a <0.2% headline with weak control would lean USD-negative ahead of the Fed.
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