USD/JPY Surges Toward 145.00: Powerful Rally Fueled by Fed Patience and Trade Optimism
The Japanese Yen extended its retreat against the US Dollar on Thursday, with USD/JPY breaking through 144.80 as global markets reacted to a dovish Federal Reserve and renewed optimism around an imminent US trade agreement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks underscored a patient policy stance and downplayed the urgency for interest rate adjustments, pushing Treasury yields lower and pressuring the Greenback momentarily. However, the broader narrative of a hawkish pause — coupled with geopolitical trade optimism — has emboldened USD/JPY bulls, positioning the pair for a potential test of the key psychological 145.00 level.
USD/JPY Surges Toward 145.00
| Conviction | Pair | Position | Entry | Stop Loss | Target(s) | Conviction Rationale (Macro & Technical Context) |
| High | USD/JPY | Long | 144.8 | 143.3 | 146.00; 147.50 | Fed’s hawkish pause (no near-term rate cuts) and optimism over a major US trade deal are boosting the USD and undermining the safe-haven JPY. The BoJ’s cautious outlook (dovish tilt) reinforces a policy divergence favoring USD/JPY upside. Technically, the pair’s strong rebound from sub-140 lows remains intact, with bulls poised to test the key 145.00 resistance and the 4H 200-period SMA (~145.25). A breakout above that zone would open the path toward ~146.00 (last week’s high). Elevated geopolitical tensions (e.g. Ukraine, Middle East) pose some safe-haven bid for JPY, but thus far have not derailed the pair’s bullish momentum. |
Summary
Market participants are increasingly pricing in a continuation of policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, with the Fed signaling extended rate stability and the BoJ reiterating a cautious but upward-leaning stance on future hikes. US President Donald Trump’s signal of a “major trade deal” announcement later today has further tilted risk sentiment toward the Dollar, marginalizing the Yen’s safe-haven appeal. With technical momentum reinforcing the macro backdrop — and the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart looming just above current levels — the USD/JPY pair appears well-positioned for further gains, barring a surprise shift in trade or geopolitical dynamics.
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