USDCHF Analysis – 30th May
The dollar-franc bounce that followed Wednesday’s tariff headlines has already run out of steam. Thursday’s relief bid lifted USD/CHF to 0.8348, but the move stalled exactly at the 20-day exponential average and just below the 50-day line—levels that capped every recovery wave since late April. A swift retreat back through 0.8300 leaves the broader down-trend intact.
USDCHF Fundamentals tilt south
Tariff uncertainty resurfaces: a federal appeals court has only paused the lower court’s injunction; the White House vows to re-impose duties “another way.” The lack of clarity keeps risk demand fragile and underpins safe-haven CHF demand.
Soft U.S. data: the second estimate of Q1 GDP surprised with a –0.2 % contraction and jobless claims ticked up, reinforcing expectations for two Fed cuts in H2 2025. Attention now turns to today’s core PCE print (consensus 0.1 % m/m).
SNB rhetoric priced in: Chair Schlegel’s warning that “negative inflation is possible” pushed rate-cut odds for 19 June to 75 %, but the market had already been leaning dovish. Unless the SNB signals imminent FX intervention, CHF remains the preferred haven.
| Pair / Bias | Entry Zone / Trigger | Stop-Loss | Targets (T1 → T2 → T3) | Detailed Rationale |
| USD/CHF – SHORT | 0.8300 – 0.8320 fade (20-DMA rejection & failed break of tariff spike).Backup: sell H1 close around 0.8250. | 0.8360 (above daily swing & 50-DMA) | TP1 – 0.8186 TP2 – 0.8100 | • GDP contraction (-0.2 %) and tariff chaos re-ignite “Sell America” flow.• CHF head-wind from dovish SNB talk already priced; rate-cut odds soften as risk jitters return.• Price printed a textbook bull-trap at 20-DMA; structure still lower-highs. |
Technical picture:
The price action of the past six weeks resembles a bear flag whose upper boundary sits near 0.8320 – 0.8350. Thursday’s rejection there keeps the sequence of lower highs intact, while daily RSI remains below 50—consistent with bearish momentum. A close beneath 0.8250 would confirm flag failure and reopen April’s floor at 0.8186; below it lies the 0.8100/0.8040 double-bottom.
A hotter-than-expected core PCE (≥ 0.3 %) could trigger a brief dollar squeeze, but the technical and macro hurdles clustered around 0.8350 – 0.8400 should limit upside. Conversely, a soft inflation print would likely accelerate CHF gains and validate the bearish flag target near 0.81.
Bottom line: USD/CHF remains a sell-on-rallies market while it trades below 0.8360. Only a decisive break of that cap would neutralise the medium-term down-trend and shift focus toward 0.84/0.85.
Trading bias
Unless USD/CHF can secure a daily settlement above 0.8360 (50-DMA), rallies look more like opportunities to re-enter shorts than the start of a trend reversal. Near-term:
| Zone | Bias | Invalidation | Objective |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8300 – 0.8320 | Fade strength | Daily close > 0.8360 | 0.8186, then 0.8100 |
| < 0.8250 | Momentum break | H4 close back > 0.8300 | Same as above |
For similar High-Conviction GBPUSD Trade Ideas on our forex page.
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