USDCHF, EURUSD & USDJPY: High-Conviction FX Trade Setups to Watch After SNB and Fed Shifts

USDCHF, EURUSD & USDJPY: High-Conviction FX Trade Setups to Watch After SNB and Fed Shifts Financial markets are tip-toeing through one of the trickiest macro cross-currents in years. The Federal Reserve has just delivered a “hawkish pause”, trimming its forecast for future easing while warning that Donald Trump’s tariff volley could lift goods-price inflation over the summer. At the same time, headline risk is climbing: Washington is reportedly drawing up weekend strike options against Iran, and safe-haven flows are zig-zagging on every new headline. Europe and Switzerland are marching to a different beat. The SNB is poised to slash rates back to 0 %—and has opened the door to negative territory—just as the ECB signals only a light touch of additional easing. Across the Channel, a divided BoE is expected to sit tight at 4.25 % even though UK inflation is still miles above target. Meanwhile in Asia, the Bank of Japan shows no urgency to tighten again, and Tokyo’s decision to trim ultra-long bond issuance underscores lingering growth anxiety. Add in fresh evidence of a softening U.S. housing market and it is clear the global policy mosaic is fragmenting fast. For traders, these fault lines are fertile ground: divergent rate paths, pockets of genuine safe-haven demand, and technical setups that are straining against well-defined inflection levels. Against that backdrop, the article that follows distils the noise into three A-grade FX opportunities—long USD/CHF, short EUR/USD and long USD/JPY—each anchored to a specific catalyst, explicit entry and exit levels, and disciplined risk parameters. Whether you trade tactically around central-bank meetings or prefer multi-day swing positions, the following playbook aims to offer a concise roadmap through the volatility ahead. Pair & Direction Trigger / Entry Zone Initial Stop Price Targets Confidence Drivers 1. Long USD/CHF Buy a daily close ≥ 0.8200 or retest of 0.8210–0.8230. 0.8140 (below Tuesday’s low & 5-day EMA) TP1 – 0.8315 (23.6 % Fib of Jan-Apr decline) TP2 – 0.8480 (38.2 % Fib / Feb swing low) SNB expected to cut 25 bp to 0 %; strong chance of negative rates later in 2025, keeping real-yield differential and carry firmly in the dollar’s favour. Safe-haven CHF demand is blunted by easier policy. DXY is already breaking a one-week high after the Fed’s hawkish pause. 2. Short EUR/USD Sell a clean break beneath 1.1450 (NY 4-hour close) or fade a pullback to 1.1480 with tight risk. 1.1535 (above Wednesday’s high & 10-DMA) TP1 – 1.1340 (May swing low / lower channel boundary) TP2 – 1.1250 (weekly S2 / Q1 pivot) Euro losing altitude as Middle-East angst fuels the USD bid and ECB officials signal only gradual easing, not enough to offset Trump-tariff inflation risks the Fed is flagging. Momentum studies turned down; price has sliced through the 20-DMA and is threatening to exit a 6-week rising channel. 3. Long USD/JPY Buy on a decisive daily close ≥ 145.45 (range top) or a dip-and-hold at 144.90-145.10. 144.60 (below 50-hr EMA & range mid) TP1 – 146.25 (May 29 high, psychological round) TP2 – 147.40 (Q1 swing high / 78.6 % Fib) Fed/BoJ rate-spread remains > 450 bp and widening after FOMC. Odds of a 2025 BoJ hike have shrunk, while JGB supply worries keep yields capped. Technically the pair is coiling in a bullish continuation rectangle; RSI just crossed higher from midline. Geopolitical flare-ups could deliver intra-day yen spikes, hence the relatively tight stop.   USD/CHF – Policy divergence in overdrive Catalyst: Today’s SNB meeting. A 25 bp cut to 0 % was realized, but the Board will almost certainly signal readiness to go negative again if the franc keeps rallying. Swiss CPI has undershot 1 % for three months and the central-bank prefers cutting to intervening under a hostile-tariff U.S. backdrop. Price action: The pair has just printed five consecutive green daily candles and nudged above the 50-DMA for the first time since late April. 0.8315 (Fib/structure) lines up with the bottom of February’s value area, offering a realistic initial take-profit before heavy supply. EUR/USD – Twin headwinds: safe-haven dollar & soft euro rhetoric Catalyst: Lagarde/Nagel/De Guindos speeches later today are likely to underscore “data-dependence” but also warn about downside risks from trade and the Middle-East conflict, reinforcing market expectations for another 25 bp ECB cut in September while the Fed delays. Macro overlay: Eurozone PMIs have rolled over, and German export orders fell 2.3 % last month (released Wednesday). With WTI flirting with $78 and Brent near $81, energy-linked terms-of-trade are swinging against Europe. All this makes the 1.15 handle look richly valued. USD/JPY – Yield carry beats haven flow (unless headlines explode) Catalyst: Persistent Fed-BoJ policy gap plus today’s Japanese CPI (Friday local time) expected at just 2.3 % YoY, down from 2.5 %, giving the BoJ cover to stay patient. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury supply remains heavy and keeps the 10-year near 4.40 %, underpinning dollar-yen carry demand. Technical picture: A break through 145.45 would clear the “right side” of a month-long rectangle and uncap the topside toward 146-147. Only a sudden, much wider M-East escalation (or a surprise BoJ policy leak) upsets this bias—hence the weekend-gap caution.   For similar Forex Markets news please visit our forex page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. 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