USDCHF Trade Setup – 18/9/2025 USD/CHF sits in a well-defined downtrend after the FOMC delivered a 25 bp “risk-management” cut and reaffirmed an easing path, leaving the dollar with a medium-term headwind despite the brief post-presser firming in yields and DXY. Into today’s US data and ahead of next week’s SNB, the USD leg remains the primary driver. Technically, 0.79–0.80 has acted as a persistent supply pocket, and sentiment adds confluence: retail remains heavily long USD/CHF while earlier-month CFTC prints showed CHF selling—both supportive of downside squeezes on any USD softness. Against that backdrop, our A+ plan is to sell rallies into 0.7925–0.7980 (add near 0.8000) and add momentum on a clean break below 0.7875, with a structural invalidation above 0.8035. Initial and secondary targets sit at 0.7820 and 0.7750, with stretch potential to 0.7700 if the USD leg weakens into data. USDCHF Trade Setup: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) USD/CHF 0.7910 Sell rallies 0.7925–0.7980; add near 0.8000; momentum add on <0.7875 0.8035 (back above 0.80 supply & FOMC spike) 0.7820 / 0.7750 (stretch 0.7700) Fundamentals: Fed cut 25bp and framed it as risk-management with scope for more easing – medium-term USD headwind even if knee-jerk firmed the dollar. SNB isn’t today, so USD-leg dominates. Technicals: Persistent downtrend; 0.79 – 0.80 is a proven supply pocket to fade. Sentiment/positioning: Retail heavily long USD/CHF (contrarian bearish); specs had been selling CHF earlier in month – fuel for downside squeeze if USD slips on data. Thu 13:30 US Initial Claims / Philly Fed; Fri pre-dawn BoJ (USD leg spillover). Chart by Trading View – USDCHF Trade Setup – 18.9.2025 Conclusion This is a high-conviction, asymmetric short: macro bias (Fed easing path) aligns with a clear technical sell zone and supportive positioning signals. The trade only ceases to be A+ if price reclaims and holds above 0.8035, which would indicate supply absorption and force us flat. Tactically, size smaller into event risk (BoE 12:00, US claims/Philly 13:30, BoJ spillover overnight) and scale after confirmation (e.g., rejection wicks in the 0.79–0.80 band or sustained trade below 0.7875). Take partials at 0.7820, reduce again near 0.7750, and trail stops lower on 4H swing highs. Should US data surprise hawkishly or the SNB lean unexpectedly less supportive next week, step back to reassess—until then, fading 0.79–0.80 remains the highest-quality expression of a softer-USD regime. For similar Forex Trade Setups please visit our forex trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...
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