USDCHF Trade Signal – 22.09.25

USDCHF Trade Signal – 22.09.25 USD/CHF remains a high-conviction sell-the-rally after the Fed’s risk-management cut pushed the policy path toward further easing while the franc’s near-term driver is largely the USD leg into Tuesday’s PMIs and Thursday’s SNB. Technically, spot continues to trade beneath the 0.79 – 0.80 supply band, a zone that has capped every bounce since August. Positioning adds confluence: speculative and retail communities remain tilted long USD/CHF, leaving the pair vulnerable to downside squeezes whenever US data underwhelm or yields soften. Against that backdrop, our A+ plan is unchanged: fade 0.7965 – 0.8015, add on momentum through 0.7900, and anchor risk above 0.8045/0.8060. Initial and secondary take-profit levels sit at 0.7860 and 0.7780, with a stretch to 0.7700 if USD pressure broadens into week-end data. USDCHF Trade Signal: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+  Near-term catalysts (UK time) USD/CHF 0.7941 Short rallies into 0.7965–0.8015; add on clean break <0.7900 Hard: 0.8060; Invalidation: daily close >0.8045 0.7860, 0.7780, stretch 0.7700 Fundamentals: Fed just cut 25 bp and flagged rising downside risks to jobs – softer USD impulse; SNB meets Thu and has been easing earlier in the year but inflation remains low – scope to stay patient/support CHF. Technicals: Lower-highs since Aug; sub-0.8000 supply; space to June swing lows ~0.7780. Positioning: Specs are net short CHF (non-comms 6,235 long vs 32,275 short) – USD/CHF longs are crowded and vulnerable to a squeeze lower; IG retail shows 85% long USD/CHF (contrarian bearish). Tue 23 Sep: France PMI 08:15, Germany 08:30, Eurozone 09:00, UK 09:30, US 14:45 Thu 25 Sep 07:30: SNB Rate / MPA. Fri 26 Sep 13:30: US core PCE. Chart by TradingView – USDCHF Trade Signal – 22.09.25 USDCHF Trade Signal Conclusion This signal offers clean asymmetry: macro (Fed-led USD drift), market structure (persistent resistance at 0.80), and sentiment (crowded USD longs) all point in the same direction. Execute with staggered entries on tests of the supply band; use hard stops during data releases, then convert to a close-based invalidation >0.8045 once volatility normalizes. Take partials at 0.7860, trail behind 1H/4H lower highs for 0.7780, and let a final clip run toward 0.7700 if SNB tone is steady and US data (PMIs, core PCE) lean USD-negative. Stand aside and reassess only if (a) price reclaims and holds above 0.8045/0.8060, signaling supply absorption, or (b) the SNB surprises materially dovish toward CHF strength. Absent that, fading 0.79–0.80 remains the highest-quality expression of a softer-USD regime.   For similar Forex Trade Signals please visit our forex trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.   TerraBullMarkets...