USDJPY Trade Setup – 10.6.25 USD/JPY enters the week trading around 150.40 after a strong Asian session, with price reclaiming and holding above the psychologically important 150.00 handle following Sanae Takaichi’s win to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister. The macro backdrop continues to favour a topside bias: policy divergence remains intact as the Bank of Japan signals only gradual normalization while U.S. policy expectations stay comparatively tighter, and broader risk appetite has kept the yen on the back foot. Technically, the pair has transitioned from range to expansion, prior resistance in the 150.00 – 150.20 zone is now acting as first support, with little notable supply until the 151.7 / 153.0 region. Positioning and flow dynamics are constructive as well. The build-up of resting stops and optionality around 150.80 / 151.00 increases the probability of momentum follow-through if dips are absorbed. Near-term event risk is concentrated in Japan household/sector data and Fed communications mid-week, alongside global risk sentiment. Against this backdrop, we prefer a buy-the-dip approach with clear invalidation below last week’s structure, aiming to capture continuation toward prior cycle highs while staying nimble around headline-driven volatility. USDJPY Trade Setup: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment/positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) USD/JPY 150.40 Long on dips 150.05 – 150.20; add on clean break / hold above 150.80 149.20 (daily structure break); hard fail <148.80 151.70 – 153.00 (stretch 154.20) Fundamentals: Asia session: JPY slumped after Takaichi won LDP leadership, cutting BoJ hike odds and tilting policy mix to fiscal easing, resulting in weaker JPY. Technicals: Psychological 150 broken; momentum shift with prior multi-week range top now support; thin overhead until 151.7/153. Sentiment: IMM shows specs net long JPY (fuel for capitulation on upside), while USD tone steadied with U.S. data vacuum (shutdown). Barrier/stop clusters likely above 150.80/151.00. Mon: Eurozone Retail Sales 09:00; Tonight/Tue pre-London: Japan Household Spending 00:30 – 00:50; Tue: Japan Current Account 15:50; Wed: FOMC minutes 19:00, RBNZ 03:00 (risk via broad USD) Fri: U. Michigan 15:00. Chart by TradingView – USDJPY Trade Setup – 10.6.25 Conclusion While USD/JPY holds above the 150 handle, the risk-reward remains skewed to the topside. We will continue to buy orderly pullbacks into 150.05 – 150.20 and add on sustained acceptance above 150.80, targeting 151.70 and 153.00, with a stretch towards 154.20. Risk is tightly defined: a break of 149.20, or a daily close back below 150.00 after a failed push above 150.80, invalidates the immediate impulse and argues for de-risking. Our trade management will be dynamic: trailing stops under any successive higher lows, taking partial risk off into 151.70 / 153.00, and move to breakeven once 151.00 is captured on a closing basis. We’ll be maintaining vigilance around scheduled risk events, Japan data and the FOMC minute, and any bouts of official jawboning; absent of a clear policy surprise, dips should be absorbed and momentum favours continuation toward prior cycle highs. For similar Forex Trade Signals please visit our forex trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...
Standard Package Membership Required
You must be a Standard Package member to access this content.
