USDJPY Trade Setup – 10th Nov

The USD/JPY pair enters the new trading week perched near the 154.00 handle, a zone that once again places Tokyo’s Ministry of Finance squarely in focus. The yen has endured renewed selling pressure as U.S. yields rebounded on fading near-term recession fears and cautious optimism surrounding a potential U.S. government shutdown resolution. Yet, the technical picture shows a market pressing into historically sensitive territory, with verbal intervention from Japanese officials intensifying over the weekend. From a macro standpoint, this setup now pivots on the delicate balance between BoJ policy normalization risk and Fed rate-cut repricing ahead of this Thursday’s U.S. CPI print. With speculative short yen positions stretched and momentum showing signs of exhaustion above 154.50, the risk-reward profile skews firmly toward fading strength into the 155 area. Structurally, this aligns with both fundamental asymmetry and overextended technicals, the hallmarks of an A+ short setup. USDJPY Trade Setup: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (Fundamentals, Technicals, Sentiment) Near-term catalysts (UK time) USD/JPY SHORT – Fade strength into 154.60 – 155.20 (scale 2–3 tranches). Add only on lower-timeframe reversal (30–60m rejection). Hard stop 155.80; invalidate on daily close >155.40. 153.00, 151.90; stretch 149.90 on negative US CPI surprise. Fundamentals: MoF/FinMin warnings keep intervention risk live near mid-155s; risk premia rises as we approach US CPI. Technicals: Price is back to heavy supply 154.6 – 155.2 with repeated momentum divergences; clear level-to-level downside if the sweep fails. Sentiment: Options and street commentary point to crowded JPY shorts / topside barriers; with CFTC COT paused during the shutdown, options open-interest and skew are our proxies. (Bloomberg) Mon: pre-EU: risk-on after US shutdown progress (fades spikes). Thu 13 Nov 13:30: US CPI Oct (primary driver). All week: shutdown resolution headlines; UST yield swings. Chart by TradingView – USDJPY Trade Setup – 10th November Conclusion For traders, the coming sessions offer a compelling tactical window: the confluence of elevated intervention risk, option-barrier congestion, and macro event timing (Japan GDP, U.S. CPI) creates the potential for a sharp reversal lower. Any decisive daily close back under 153.00 would confirm a near-term top, with downside extension likely toward 151.90–150.00 as positioning unwinds. The disciplined fade of rallies into 154.6–155.2 remains the highest-conviction tactical play on the board this week. The message is simple — respect the MoF’s line in the sand and the mounting asymmetry at current levels; patience and precision should define the week’s yen strategy. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk; manage exposure accordingly. For similar FX Trade Setups please visit our FX Trade Ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...