USDJPY Trade Setup – 13th Feb

USDJPY remains one of the cleanest “macro & rates” expressions going into today’s key event risk, with price action increasingly sensitive to shifts in U.S. yields and broader risk sentiment. After an elevated-volatility week for the yen, driven by shifting expectations around Bank of Japan policy and ongoing repositioning, USDJPY is trading inside a well-defined liquidity zone where stop placement and timing matter as much as directional bias. With U.S. CPI ahead, the setup is best approached as a levels-driven trade: prioritizing patience into rallies, respecting obvious stop pockets, and letting the post-data impulse confirm whether the market is repricing the U.S. rate path or simply fading pre-event noise. USDJPY Trade Setup Pair Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (Fund / Tech / Sentiment) Price action driver Near-term catalysts (UK) USDJPY  SHORT – Sell rallies into 153.70 – 154.05 or sell failure back below 153.10 after a stop-run 154.45 T1: 152.90 T2:  152.40 Fundamentals: yen bid this week on BOJ hike talk & vol premium shift Technicals: 153.50 – 154.00 is classic liquidity/supply; clean invalidation above 154.45 Sentiment: risk tone fragile; crowded JPY shorts prone to squeezes US CPI & US 10yr yields, plus equity risk sentiment Fri 13th Feb: 13:30: US CPI Chart by TradingView – USDJPY Trade Setup – 13th Feb Conclusion For today, the edge in USDJPY is in disciplined execution rather than prediction. Treat rallies into the identified supply/liquidity area as opportunities only if price action shows rejection and risk remains controlled with a clear invalidation line. If CPI surprises meaningfully, wait for the initial volatility to settle and look to trade the first pullback in the direction of the sustained move, avoiding the common trap of reacting to the first spike. As always, the setup is invalid if price accepts beyond the defined risk level; in that scenario, step aside and reassess rather than averaging into a broken thesis. Keep sizing conservative into the release, take partial profits into first targets, and let the market prove the move before pressing. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk; manage exposure accordingly. For similar FX Trade Setups please visit our FX Trade Ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...