USD/JPY remains a key focus this week as price action once again tests the upper bounds of the 155.00 resistance zone, a level that has repeatedly attracted both official and speculative attention. The pair’s recent resilience reflects short-term USD support from long lingering U.S. rate differentials, yet momentum has begun to stall as Japanese authorities intensify verbal intervention and the Bank of Japan signals growing confidence in achieving its inflation mandate. With macro and market structure both hinting at exhaustion, the setup presents a compelling asymmetric opportunity: fading extended dollar strength against an increasingly intervention-sensitive yen. From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is forming a clear triple-top structure near 155.00 – 155.30, a zone historically associated with heavy option barriers and official smoothing operations. Momentum indicators show persistent bearish divergence, while liquidity sits stacked beneath 153.50 and 152.20. Fundamentally, BoJ commentary, alongside softer U.S. data expectations, supports a tactical short bias into the end of the week. This alignment of fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment gives USD/JPY one of the strongest conviction scores on the board, qualifying as an A+ (3/3) setup. Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, Technicals, Sentiment) Near-term catalysts (UK time) USD/JPY SHORT into 155.00 – 155.30 (scale in); add on a 1h close back below 154.80 after a 155.00 sweep Hard stop 155.85 (clear out above options/official “line in sand”) 153.50, 152.20 Fundamentals: Fresh BoJ/Ueda comments say underlying inflation is moving toward 2% (keeps Dec hike risk alive); MoF stepped up verbal warnings as Yen nears 155.00; risk of intervention/stealth smoothing. Fed speakers split and several push to pause further cuts, USD not getting fresh fuel. (Reuters) Technicals: Triple-top/major supply 154.80 – 155.30 from Oct/Nov; extended uptrend with RSI divergence on H4; clean downside liquidity pockets to 153.50 / 152.20. Sentiment: Street notes heavy 155.00 barrier/knock-outs; risk of stop cascade if 155.00 fails; CFTC positioning updates have been disrupted by the shutdown (thin transparency – shock-risk skew). Thu 07:00: UK GDP/Q3 (GBP spillover to JPY crosses); 13:30: US Jobless Claims; rolling Japanese MoF headlines any time. Chart by TradingView – USDJPY Trade Setup – 13th Nov Conclusion In the broader macro landscape, USD/JPY stands at the intersection of two diverging central bank paths and growing policy sensitivity. As the market tests Japan’s tolerance for further yen weakness, risk-reward now tilts heavily toward corrective downside. The potential for either direct intervention or heightened verbal defense around the 155.00 mark adds further conviction to a short bias. Provided the pair fails to hold above 155.30, near-term technical exhaustion combined with a fundamental rebalancing of rate expectations positions this trade as one of the most compelling opportunities into week’s end. For disciplined traders, fading strength near 155.00 with defined risk above 155.85 targets a reversion toward 153.50 and 152.20, a move consistent with both technical structure and policy logic. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk; manage exposure accordingly. For similar FX Trade Setups please visit our FX Trade Ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...
Standard Package Membership Required
You must be a Standard Package member to access this content.
