USD/JPY starts the week under renewed downside pressure, with price slipping back toward the mid-155s as the market refocuses on the rates narrative and the vulnerability of stretched carry. With U.S. 10-year yields holding near 4.18% and momentum in the pair fading on rallies, the risk/reward continues to favor selling strength rather than chasing weakness. The key for the week ahead is whether the 155.00 handle continues to act as a magnet and stabilizer, or whether a clean break lower unlocks a sharper “air pocket” move as stops and leveraged positioning get forced to adjust. Our plan stays simple: treat rallies into the upper-155s as opportunities to position short, while respecting a clearly defined invalidation above resistance. Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment) Near-term catalysts (UK time) USD/JPY SHORT – Sell rallies 155.60 – 156.00 (preferred). Add on clean break <154.90. >156.35 (above 156.00 – 156.30 resistance band) 154.35- 154.00 to 153.00 (stretch 152.00’s if carry unwinds) Fundamentals: BoJ hike expectations & narrowing yield differential narrative & “carry unwind/ticking time bomb” risk framing for JPY. Technicals: repeated failure back above 156.00; downside opens to 154.35 / 154.00 once 155.00 gives way. Sentiment: large expiries reported ~155 (support magnet) and ~156 (cap/stop zone), so a break from that gravity can accelerate. Tue 16 Dec 13:30: US Employment Situation (delayed) (Bureau of Labor Statistics) Tue 16 Dec 13:30: US Retail Sales (delayed) Thu 18 Dec 13:30: US CPI (Nov) (Bureau of Labor Statistics) Thu 18 Dec: BoJ rate decision window Chart by TradingView – USDJPY Trade Setup – 15th Dec Conclusion For the week ahead, USD/JPY remains an A+ bearish setup built around a clear technical ceiling, a well-defined stop zone, and event risk that can catalyze a move once the 155.00 area decisively gives way. The preferred strategy is to sell rallies into 155.60 – 156.00, using 156.35 as the invalidation level, and to look for downside follow-through toward 154.35, 154.00, and potentially 153.00 if risk sentiment sours or the yield differential narrative shifts further in favor of JPY. With major U.S. data and central-bank headlines capable of driving sharp repricing, execution discipline is essential: let price come to the level, respect the stop, and focus on capturing the asymmetric move that often follows a break from a heavily watched round-number zone. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk; manage exposure accordingly. For similar FX Trade Setups please visit our FX Trade Ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. TerraBullMarkets.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets or any financial instrument involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TerraBullMarkets.com nor any of its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. TerraBullMarkets.com and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted. The author and TerraBullMarkets.com are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. TerraBullMarkets...
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